Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang.  I wanted to drop by for a super duper quick update to the active pattern taking shape for the next few weeks.

The setup for the nest several days hasn’t changed, but nuisances in the details are showing up. We know rain and a possible clap of thunder moves in tonight and Wednesday. After that, we find a split in the models.

The GFS shows heavy rain and some thunder Thursday into early Friday, before a quick switch to snow as cold air crashes in later Friday…

That faster push of cold then keeps the next low developing to our south, largely missing Kentucky.

The Canadian isn’t as bullish with the Friday cold, and keeps a bigger system on top of us for the weekend. This run has taken a colder look with this system, bringing heavy rain and some snow…


Behind that comes additional systems targeting our region next week…

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a lot of precipitation on top of us over the next few weeks…

I’ll have another update this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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24 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. BubbaG says:

    Looking more like significant snow chances are about done. Next up, spring-like storms?

  2. Jimbo says:

    Winding down another boring and dreary Winter.

    • TennMark says:

      Crazy thing is, snow lovers in Jackson MS, Baton Rouge LA, and even Corpus Christi TX have had a very memorial winter 😉 .

      True, there was the infamous March 13 1993 blizzard. Both Memphis and Nashville have had their biggest single storm snows in March (around the 1910s IIRC, both cities hit by same storm). But as has been pointed out, the current wx dynamics don’t look so good for snow the rest of this season other than an occasional brief cold spell that by chance encounters some moisture. Time will tell.

  3. Chris Mercer says:

    I won’t say significant snow chances are done, but it will take an unusual storm to get a major snowfall past the later part of February. IN recent memory, Lexington had a 17 inch snowfall in Early March 2015.

  4. jackson says:

    The 2 biggest snows I’ve ever seen in Pike County both came in March, 1993 and 1996. I was very young but can remember a big snow in April in the mid-late 80s. Odds off that happening this year are low but you never know.

    On a side note, with as much rain as we have already had and with a very saturated ground if we can make it thru these next few weeks with this current weather pattern and not experience area wide river flooding and/or mudslides we will be fortunate.

    • Cold Rain says:

      That April 2-5 1987 snow was my favorite..Just kept snowing for 3-4 days..had over 2 feet..Was without power for almost a week but was worth it..Probably never get to experience another freak snow like it again..Really don’t care for snow anymore but every youngster should witness something like that..

      • Dale says:

        I measured exactly 36 inches in that storm at Dorton. All local channels were calling for an all rain event, only one new station said it looks like a portion of Eastern Ky could receive 3 feet of snow from this setup, believe it or not it was TWC.

    • nasdaq says:

      just dont make snow storms like they use to, many historic snow storms in the 80’s and 90’s

    • nasdaq says:

      Just wish everyone would have had a smartphone back then to document it all, I had no idea those snow storms would be so rare..because they happened so often

      • jackson says:

        I was 12 years old in March of 1993, every kid should get to experience a storm like that 🙂

        It would’ve been great to have had a smartphone during that storm lol. If you wouldve dropped it you may have not found it for a week lol.

  5. Matt says:

    Seems it’s feast or famine when it comes to rain, it’ll probably dry out at some point this spring and we’ll be begging for it.

  6. Schroeder says:

    I have seen forecast for rain and it turns out to be a snow event catching everyone by surprise.

  7. TennMark says:

    With the heavy rains both in Nashville and upstream of the city, the Cumberland River at Nashville crested about 6 feet below flood stage and thankfully is dropping. We are “soaking” in this dry weather while it lasts. As we know, the prospect of more flooding rains could be in the cards with the pattern we are in. Thanks Chris Bailey for keeping us up to date!

  8. LOUTeach says:

    Thanks for the updates CB! Not looking forward to the flooding rain potential. Could MN surprise us with a surprise snow storm? We’ll see I suppose. Doesn’t seem too likely at the moment, but wouldn’t hurt my feelings.

  9. Jimmie says:

    That system late next week has a really ugly look to it. Hopefully the low tracks right over KY and keeps the ice storm to our north and west.

  10. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Do not worry the ice storm will be above Indy before it is all said and done.

  11. Bjenks says:

    If this stormy southern branch stays active into March we will have a major snow in are region. All the indecisive are pointing to a flip to colder East coast. Blocking will take place and we all know what that means.

  12. Formerly from KY says:

    Looks like Kentucky will have to wait next winter for any significant snowfall with current weather pattern to last into early spring.

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