Good Monday, everyone. We are kicking off a very active week of weather across the Commonwealth of Kentucky and surrounding states. Record highs, strong storms and heavy rains are all on the weather menu. Given the already swollen waterways and wet ground, flooding is likely to become a big player.
As usual, let’s start with today and roll forward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are zipping across the state as a warm front lifts to the north. Locally heavy downpours will be noted, along with very gusty winds…
By this afternoon, a lot of the stormy action will be to our north with temps surging into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tuesday is a crazy warm day, with daily record highs a pretty good bet. All-time monthly highs for February are also possible with temps close to the 80 degree mark.
Now, let’s talk about the flooding aspect. Our rivers are already running very high, with numerous rivers under a Flood Warning, including much of the Ohio…
Some significant flooding is already forecast along the Ohio River in northern and northeastern Kentucky, especially…
Those numbers may change in the coming days, depending on future rains.
My overall idea continues to highlight our entire region for the greatest potential for flooding over the next week or so…
You can see the shower and storm train lining up through the weekend…
Several inches of rain will fall across the area through the weekend, leading to the potential for rounds of flash flooding and general flooding. The rivers are especially vulnerable for significant flooding.
Some additional action is possible next week, as we get set to close out the month of February. Once into March, there’s the potential for late season winter weather developing across much of the country. The NAO and AO are forecast to go strongly negative…
Those two, in tandem, usually mean a cold pattern for our region. If the active storm pattern continues, things could get interesting. #teamspring
I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
In regards to winter making a return, I will believe it when I see it. For now, I will just enjoy warmer temps.
I agree: The models were terribly inaccurate with February. On the other hand though, IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT, that will be some serious blocking and definite influence likely for the overall March pattern. Usually, models are fairly accurate for predicting blocking in general.
May be possible to squeeze out a few more snow events bef ore all is said and done, alot of our past memorable storms have happened in that early- mid March timeframe. But like Jeff remarked we will see. Everyone have an enjoyable Presidents Day.
If both of there go negative it could be and interesting month of March. As for President Day being a retired serviceman and a veteran of Desert Storm I would like to honor some of our past Commander in Chief’s who had to make some tough decision in leading this great country into war. Being a veteran those decisions are really tough knowing that lost of life is going to happen. So to some of great men here’s to you.
Thank You For Your Service To Our Great Country Sir. I Can’t Imagine What You And Others Have Gone Through.
Your welcome. I come from a long line of military dating back at least seven generation. And I honor everyone of relatives who have served.
I hope that this Spring / Summer weather predicted for this week is short lived. If it last more than three weeks the plant life will be damaged. In order for this not to happen, the weather pattern we have now would have to remain. Here’s wishing that Spring is really here.
Trees are already budding here in Harlan, but thankfully, they are not too far out yet.
Looks like Spring is here, according to National Weather Service: In ten days, a Omega Block may make it’s appearance. I know this goes against Chris’s chosen models for a second winter in March where it says the AO and the NAO go extremely negative. Here’s the NWS latest:http://www.weather.gov/mkx/omega-block-041616
Hope those models showing s return to winter is wrong. Got to remember that February was predicted to be cold and snow too and we got warm and rain. Let’s move on to spring.
Here is an eerie map from 15 years ago I dug up from the archives related to the flood gage along the Cumberland River near Barbourville…
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/0302/fig12.mw030221.gif
This last flooding the Cumberland crested at 37.5 feet in Barbourville.
One good thing about a -NAO is it slows systems down..Can have some big lows that sit and spin,phasing,Nor’easters..All kinds of goodies..With a -AO also and the positioning of the blocking that’s being shown things can get interesting..All this is about 10 days away according to modeling so we shall see what transpires if anything..