Good Tuesday, everyone. Flooding is likely to become a significant problem over the next several days, as rounds of showers and thunderstorms target the bluegrass state. Several inches of rain will fall from Wednesday through Sunday, so look out.

Before we get to the flood threat, let’s talk about the historic temps out there today. This will be one of the warmest February days on record for Kentucky. For some cities, it may be the warmest February day. Highs will flirt with 80 degrees, which is a typical high for early June. Wow.

The setup from Wednesday through Sunday will feature a front stalling out across our region, with waves of low pressure working along it…

That front will likely oscillate back and forth across the Ohio Valley, meaning some wild temperature rides. At times, we could see a 30 degree temp gradient setting up across Kentucky.

If we can get that front to focus farther north and west as one of those lows develops, strong to severe storms will be possible.

The European Model continues to look the most consistent in terms of totals and placement for the heaviest rains…

The GFS appears to be having some MAJOR feedback issues and that’s severely impacting the model’s placement of the heaviest rains. Shocking, I know.

I fully expect Flood Watches to go up today for much of the region. Here are your tracking toys…

 

I will have updates later today, so check back. Enjoy this historic day of warmth and take care.