Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Today is making a run at the warmest February day on record for the bluegrass state. Gusty southwesterly winds are boosting temps to near 80 degrees in most areas. After today, it’s all about the significant flood threat that starts on Wednesday and rolls through the weekend.

I have no changes to the thoughts on this setup. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will dump several inches of rain on top of Kentucky in the coming days.

The GFS is slowly shedding some of the feedback issues and is coming more in line with other models, focusing the heavier rains farther south into our region…

The Canadian Model throws a new wrinkle into the mix, with another low developing early next week…

Flood Watches should be issued this afternoon for most of Kentucky and surrounding states. Giving the public advanced notice of potentially life-threatening weather is the mission of everyone in this business, or it should be. There is no reason not to have a long-lead Watch in advance of this kind of a setup.

Here are your tracking toys…


I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another KWC update this evening. Enjoy the warmth and take care.

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11 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Mike S says:

    I am not aware of a long-lead watch for flooding or any other event. I think the NWS adheres to a timetable before issuing a watch product, like a day or so. That is what they call the Be Prepared stage. But, they do have a Be Aware or Heads Up stage when Hazardous Weather Outlooks and Hydrologic Outlooks are issued, and I have noticed these over the past few days. Also, public service announcements like your blog are helpful, along with word of mouth, things that we hear, so we can remind our families, friends, and neighbors of possible threats to their lives and properties.
    Some flood warning products were issued before flooding was actually occurring, since river levels were expected to rise to action levels and beyond.

  2. TJ says:

    Spring rains are good, but I hope we don’t get too much. Never want to see loss of life or property from any weather event. Thanks to Chris for keeping us all informed.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, The weather today would be perfect if it was May instead of February. I’m thinking now this weather pattern may be a trend and will appear from time to time over the next ninety days. I don’t know about flooding rains for the rest of the week. At the present the radar is showing rain showers well to our north and doesn’t show signs of moving into our area any time soon, which is good news for flood prong areas of the state.

    • Mike S says:

      Forecast confidence is quite high, between 80 and 90 percent through Saturday. Whatever falls on soft soil during this time can either prolong or aggravate flooding issues already present.

    • BF says:

      I don’t care what time of year it is, I would take today’s weather 365 days a year.

  4. Virgil says:

    What I believe Chris may be trying to convey is that regardless of the standard timeline the NWS has now, the NWS needs to be flexible/adaptable to situations like this and be able to take into consideration such things such as the very recent weather when deciding on a timetable to issue things like Flash Flood Watches. Oh and #TeamSpring

  5. Mike S says:

    Louisville sets all-time record for warmest February day at 82, breaking last year’s record tying 81.

  6. Chris Mercer says:

    Lexington tied the record for the warmest February day on record at 80. Also ties the record for the warmest day in winter shared with a day in January of 1943 and February of 1996. December is the only month that has not recorded an 80 degree day in Lexington.

  7. Chris Mercer says:

    Also, another fun fact. On this day in 2015, it dropped to -18 in Lexington, the coldest for so late in the season. Today we hit 80 the earliest ever in a season.

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