Good afternoon, everyone. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a full blow Winter Storm Threat for late Sunday into early Monday. I’ve talked about our system likely coming a little farther north on the models, and we are seeing that happening right now.

Still, I’d like to see additional model runs this afternoon and evening before going “all in” on this system.

Here are my preliminary areas to watch and some thoughts…

You will notice I put the “High bust potential” on there. That goes both ways. If this system is stronger and farther north, that would be a lot more snow. If the system is weaker and farther south, forget about snow.

The morning runs of the GFS and NAM both went all in on our storm, but disagree on placement and track. Here’s the GFS…

This is ONLY a model snowfall forecast from the GFS…

The NAM has a big time swath of snow, but it’s oriented more west to east across the southern half of the state..

Again, this is ONLY a computer model snowfall forecast from the NAM…

The Canadian continues to trend north and more consolidated with the lead low into the southern Appalachian mountains…

It would appear our old friend, “the famous northwest trend”, is back in business, for now. Let’s see if he’s still around later today.

Regardless of what happens with this low, snow showers and cold temps will kick in for the first half of next week.

Keep checking back for updates, and follow me on twitter for some thoughts (on the snow potential and the Cats ;))

Have a good one and take care.