Good Sunday, everyone. On the day we “spring forward”, nothing about the forecast looks much like spring. A developing storm system will bring rain and snow across parts of Kentucky late today into tonight. A band of heavy wet snow has the chance to put down 4″+ in some areas and that’s why we are in Winter Storm Threat Mode.

For those new to the game. this is a heads up to the POTENTIAL of 4″ or more of snow falling in parts of our region. If confidence increases, we go to an Alert. If confidence decreases, we scrap the Threat and go along our merry way. I prefer the downgrade, but Mother Nature doesn’t care about what I want.

This does NOT mean you yard will pick up 4″ or more of snow, but it does mean some areas of the state can certainly pick up those totals. Here’s the area most at risk…

Please pay close attention to the headlines I’ve included on that map. With a system like this, there are a lot of variables at play that can alter placement of the heaviest snow, and the totals it produces.

This action is coming from a coma head of precipitation rolling from west to east across the state. The models disagree on exactly where that happens. The NAM has been farthest south, but the new GFS is targeting areas much farther north..

The snowfall map from that run really drops the hammer on central Kentucky…

The Canadian Model is very similar to the GFS…

The short range Canadian Model continues to drift north and has a heavier shield of snow than earlier runs…

Keep in mind, there will be a VERY sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the precipitation shield.

Winds will also be very gusty as this system rolls in, with those winds becoming much colder in the coming days. A strong northwesterly flow will be accompanied by a clipper-type disturbance diving in here late Tuesday and Wednesday. That should produce widespread snow showers and squalls, with some accumulation possible…

#teamspring continues to take a beating here in March. However, that may change late next week into the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see temps REALLY take off and for some strong storms to come calling.

Back to today’s system, I full expect Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories to be issued early today. The map below should update with the latest…

Multiple updates are coming your way today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.