Winter Storm ALERT

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to get a quick update out to upgrade to a WInter Storm Alert for parts of the region. A corridor of heavy snow will develop from west to east later this evening and carry us through early Monday.

The exact path of this heaviest band is still a bit uncertain, but it’s put up or shut up time in terms of forecasting. 🙂

I’m likely being conservative with some of the totals in the red, but here ya go…

PLEASE read the headlines attached to the map. Notice the wide range I’m leaving open, because I do expect some “jump” spots in there. On the flip side, some “thumping” spots will also be in there. All of those are impossible to pinpoint until the event actually starts to unfold. The ALERT does not mean everybody reading this will see a winter storm, but several areas are likely to verify.

That is also NOT the final call. That comes later today.

As far as the models, the NAM continues to be very aggressive, while trending a little north…

The GFS is similar, but a hair north…

I like what the GFS is doing with some of the “jump” and “thump” pockets showing up. Just don’t expect it to show exactly where those will be.

I expect the Winter Weather Advisory to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning soon for parts of the region…

Here’s regional radar to track the system…

Updates will come later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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41 Responses to Winter Storm ALERT

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hope it tends a bit more south but if not, oh wrll. Bring on Spring! And GO CATS!!!

  2. jackson says:

    I’ve been in spring mode but since this is probably our last chance of accumulating snow till next winter I say bring it on…especially since it will melt pretty fast. I’m in the Belfry area of NE Pike County and it looks like the red line on the snowfall map goes right over top of me so hoping to see a little bit of the white stuff this time…fingers crossed 🙂

  3. B H says:

    Looks like it could be trending a little more north. I live in Southern Ohio.
    There not calling for much up here and I hope there right. We’ve had are fair share of snow. Waiting on those 60’s by the end of the coming weekend. Ready for spring.

  4. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Chris what’s your thoughts for pike/Pikeville area are we still out of it? There was no advisory here do you think that will change???

    • BubbaG says:

      Not seeing how you would not be in it, since would have to go over your area to start making the turn north east. Please keep in mind the range is 1″ to 5″, so could be a slushy no harm no foul. This stuff is not hanging around for recreational use.

    • jackson says:

      Local Met on EKB-TV giving Pikeville and surrounding areas a half of a inch of snow tonight and another half of a inch snow tomorrow morning. Really hoping we get a couple inches of snow but not expecting much.

  5. Jimbo says:

    I fully expect Huntington WV area will be one of the areas that are jumped.

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      Agree, but very interested to see what happens!

      • Jimbo says:

        Charleston NWS must not be buying any of this. They don’t even have an advisory out for anyone. I guess they have been burned enough this season.

      • Jimbo says:

        I should rephrase that. They are playing the odds and going with our history of missing virtually every storm for the last 2 and a half years.

  6. Mike says:

    Alright! That’s what I’m sayin! Good thing I am not a TV met – my philosophy of “go big or go home” – would probably not work well for anyone other than the local bakers and dairy farmers.

    We know it may or may not happen – we can only be as good as the models, the science and math of the day. But, Chris, thanks for your efforts – you make watching a community event and add some fun to it!

  7. Rodger in Dodger says:

    NWS Louisville goes Warning in central KY! Rodger in Dodger

    • BubbaG says:

      Interesting if the coverage area of the warning expands out beyond the current relatively small area.

      • Lucy says:

        Maybe north since the storm is moving north more.

        • Schroeder says:

          On the Ventusky site, the low pressure is to our south / southwest and is forecast to move eastward across the Tennessee Valley toward North Carolina by early tomorrow morning. A lot of gulf moisture and eventually Atlantic moisture will be pulled into this upper level storm at the same time colder polar is being pulled into the storm from the northeast. Looks like we have a snowstorm in the making for some of us here in central Kentucky.

  8. Cole in McCreary says:

    And McCreary Co. looks left out again, sad….

  9. Jeff Hamlin says:

    No matter what Chris emphasizes, people will complain and fuss at him.

  10. Rodger in Dodger says:

    This should be fun to watch unfold tonight. Literally will be spots that could get 6″ and a mile down the road 1″ or less. March snows! Rodger in Dodger

  11. Terry says:

    ‘Comon’ Whiley, Knox and Bell….let’s add the advisory whether or not a flake falls so we can complete all counties south of 64!

  12. feederband says:

    That conference call was entertaining. Some didn’t mute their lines and were talking through the entire event.

  13. Tom says:

    Check out the dewpoints on mesonet north of I-64. They have been falling…low 20’s for many places. A lot of cold, dry air is being pulled south…sets the stage in my opinion for one of those wild storms which has some spots outperforming due to the colder nature of the storm which the models may have understated.

  14. c-BIV says:

    Still seems to me, there is a northward trend…I-64 shouldn’t sleep on this one. These are usually the snows that “surprise” because all the focus is south.

    • Clapp Landscaping says:

      More north= phasing which makes it bigger storm.

      • c-BIV says:

        I mean, pretty much every single MET excluding CB, is saying up to an inch at most for I-64 And North. They could all be right, but none of them are leaving any room for a surprise 3-4″, like CB has done with his maps. So, if it does happen, then Mr. Bailey looks like the GOAT lol.

  15. MarkLex says:

    so this is a completely non-phased storm?

  16. MarkS says:

    Good thing is, if it does anything in central Ky, with rain coming in first, and warm ground temps, the impact will be next to nothing.

  17. MelT says:

    Heavy wet snow in Western Ky.

  18. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Pouring snow at Rodger’s House near Henderson. Southwest Indiana looks like a blizzard. Rodger in Dodger

  19. Allen says:

    WSW expanded north by one line of counties.

  20. BubbaG says:

    Cold rain so far in Richmond.

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