Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to get a quick update out to upgrade to a WInter Storm Alert for parts of the region. A corridor of heavy snow will develop from west to east later this evening and carry us through early Monday.

The exact path of this heaviest band is still a bit uncertain, but it’s put up or shut up time in terms of forecasting. πŸ™‚

I’m likely being conservative with some of the totals in the red, but here ya go…

PLEASE read the headlines attached to the map. Notice the wide range I’m leaving open, because I do expect some “jump” spots in there. On the flip side, some “thumping” spots will also be in there. All of those are impossible to pinpoint until the event actually starts to unfold. The ALERT does not mean everybody reading this will see a winter storm, but several areas are likely to verify.

That is also NOT the final call. That comes later today.

As far as the models, the NAM continues to be very aggressive, while trending a little north…

The GFS is similar, but a hair north…

I like what the GFS is doing with some of the “jump” and “thump” pockets showing up. Just don’t expect it to show exactly where those will be.

I expect the Winter Weather Advisory to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning soon for parts of the region…

Here’s regional radar to track the system…

Updates will come later today. Make it a good one and take care.