Thunderstorms Before Another Snowfall

Good Monday, everyone. We have two storm systems ready to impact our weather over the next couple of days. They will bring everything from thunderstorms, to snow to our part of the world. That last sentence goes right to the heart of the Winter verses Spring fight we continue to see. It’s epic! 🙂

The first low out there today is crossing far southern Kentucky, bringing heavy rain and some storms across the state. Areas along and south of the low are on guard for the possibility of severe thunderstorms. That includes southern parts of the bluegrass state…

If you live in these areas, damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Areas of Tennessee are really under the gun today.

For the rest of Kentucky, heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ is possible, along with very gusty winds.

The second low then develops on Tuesday and rolls into far southeastern Kentucky. This will bring rain and snow that switches to all snow for much of the sate. Here’s the NAM…

That run shows the potential for several inches of snow to fall…

The Hi Res NAM only goes through Tuesday night, but is also showing a nice “comma head” of snow…

Here’s the snow map just through Tuesday night…

The European Model is very close to the above runs of the NAM. Here’s the snow map through Wednesday…

The GFS is a little farther east, but that’s also a bias of the model…

As we inch closer to this system, the models are becoming much more expansive with the snow potential. There is a real chance they are underdoing the intensity of the wind driven snows. Once again, this setup isn’t too dissimilar to what we had one week ago this morning.

There’s a chance I upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT later today.

In the meantime, here are your tracking tools to start the day…

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.

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12 Responses to Thunderstorms Before Another Snowfall

  1. Kevin says:

    Does the snow start Tuesday day or night?

  2. MarkLex says:

    And to think March is your least favorite weather month.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, I’ll keep an ” eye to the sky ” later this afternoon as I would expect that we are going to see our first severe weather event. With the high wind shear aloft in southern Kentucky and especially in Tennessee, it might be that the enhance maybe upgraded to high later today. Everyone in these areas ( storm spotters ) keep a close watch and tune in to Chris’s blog for updates.

    • Schroeder says:

      Looks to be very likely that central and eastern Kentucky are going to be adding to their snowfall totals this week. In my county of Taylor in the hills, so far this winter I have recorded a total of twenty four inches of snow. Snowbound twice.

      • Ralph says:

        Hopefully your internet will go out…

        • Troy says:

          Hopefully yours will…

        • Schroeder says:

          If my internet goes out, it will NOT be a problem for me. I grew up in a time ( 1950’s ) when people took pride in their jobs and were happier and less rude. I miss the good ole days. In fact sometimes I wish the internet was never invented. Then you all would ask ” why are you on here ” ? I don’t know the answer to that question, but if my computer does go out I will not purchase another and you can take that to the bank.

  4. JimCVG says:

    Okay, everything but the GFS is giving Northern Kentucky crazy snow. Which model should I believe?

    • Rodger in Dodger says:


      • Terry says:

        Although temps will again play a factor, this storm appears to wrap up and COULD definitely put it down in some areas. I agree, NAM will likely be good and hi-res NAM better when we are into Tuesday evening time frame!

  5. Lotsasnow says:

    All of kentucky will miss out on any real snowfall less than an inch possible for northern Kentucky. Ohio may get hammered!

    • Schroeder says:

      A series of low pressure systems are forecast to ride along a cold front well to the south of Kentucky, which would put all of Kentucky in the target zone more than an inch of heavy wet snow. The moisture will be there, along with plenty of cold air aloft. I would think that Ohio would be just in clouds and cold, but we shall see this coming week. Keep looking for updates from Chris Bailey.

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