Tracking Storms and A Winter Storm THREAT

Good afternoon, everyone. Showers and storms are increasing across the region today, with another March snowfall waiting in the wings. That arrives later Tuesday into Wednesday and should impact much of the bluegrass state. This is now a Winter Storm THREAT.

For those new to the game. this is a heads up to the POTENTIAL of 4″ or more of snow falling in parts of our region. If confidence increases, we go to an Alert. If confidence decreases, we scrap the Threat and go along our merry way.

Before we get to the snow, let’s update the rain and storm action. There continues to be a risk of strong to severe storms across far southern parts of Kentucky. Hail and high winds are the main threats, with areas of Tennessee under the gun for a tornado outbreak. Here’s the current risk outlook from the SPC…

Old Man Winter won’t go away and will throw another decent snowfall our way later Tuesday into Wednesday. This happens as low pressure works into southeastern Kentucky…

You can see a very broad comma head of snow wrapping around the decaying low as it works into West Virginia, transferring energy to another nor’easter.

Rain switches to snow from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening, with areas of heavy snow developing through Wednesday. A few to several inches of snow may fall during this time. Here’s the area most at risk…

Much of this falls Tuesday night into Wednesday, with an increasing risk of widespread cancellations and delays. Can some areas pick up more than 4″ of wet snow? Yes. Do I think this will approach the totals we had a week ago today? No.

I will have a First Call For Snowfall coming later today on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Here’s a check of the model snowfall numbers…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

GFS

Here are your storm tracking tools for the afternoon…

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a good one and take care.


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10 Responses to Tracking Storms and A Winter Storm THREAT

  1. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, Keeping an eye out for the severe weather potential this afternoon and evening. The snow looks like a good bit for most of Kentucky. I hope those who have not receive accumulating snows this winter will tomorrow. Thanks for your updates.

  2. WM says:

    Where is everyone? Are we all just wore out over this spring-winter-spring-winter rollercoaster? I am.

    • TennMark says:

      Also, it seems many on the blog have little interest in weather phenomena other than snow. But perhaps the blog will likely light up more tomorrow as today’s weather moves on and Tuesday evening’s snowfall gets closer to our doorsteps.

      This said, the blog was extremely busy during the March 2 2012 tornadoes.

  3. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Chris I just got a winter weather advisory or tonight it’s 60 degrees I think they mean tomorrow night lol

  4. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Can’t believe Rodger is saying this but he’s mostly “meh” about this event. He’s had three 3+ snow events this winter which is a “good” winter in these parts. This one looks to stay more east of Rodger’s backyard though those back side commas can sometimes over-deliver more west as time goes on. Regardless, it’s hard to complain if you’re a snow fan about the winter of 2017-18. This is Rodger in Dodger

  5. TennMark says:

    While a Tornado Watch has been in effect for north-central Tennessee, the NWS often stresses that those in as well as near a watch can be under threat. Thus for south-central Kentucky counties along or near the state line, it’s still a good idea to be on guard.

    As the SPC map above shows, the highest tornado threat is in south-central TN into Alabama which is under a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch.

  6. Jeff Hamlin says:

    #TeamSpring wins eventually. Yes, I said it. 😉

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