Winter Storm THREAT For Saturday

Good Thursday, folks. March has been nothing short of incredible, with significant amounts of snow and very cold temps, and it’s not done just yet. Another system threatens to bring a swath of very heavy snow to parts of the state on Saturday, and that’s why we are back into another Winter Storm THREAT.

The weather out there today is nice, with  highs reaching the 40s in the central and east, with near 60 degrees in the west. Skies are sunny… Enjoy.

Friday will find temps in the 40s across the far north and northeast, with temps in the 60 degree range in the west. Temps may hit 50 or so in between those two.

That same temperature gradient becomes even stronger on Saturday. We may see a 40 degree temp swing across the state…

Low pressure rides that boundary and feeds on the mega gradient, producing a lot of precipitation. A swath of VERY heavy snow will be noted on the northern edge of the precip shield, and that may very well impact the northern half of the state. Here’s the Winter Storm THREAT area…

Those lines may go north or come a little farther south as we get closer, and can get a better handle on the EXACT track of the low. For now, I feel pretty good with the outlined areas.

The models are very similar to my map. The latest European Model has come south some…

NAM

The NAM usually overdoes the warm air advection early on, as it loses it, it corrects south a bit.

GFS

In addition to the snow threat in the north and northeast, we may also deal with some local high water issues developing across the rest of the state. A general 1″-2″ of rain is possible, with locally higher amounts…

GFS

Canadian

The setup for next week turns milder, but we are likely to see additional rounds of showers and storms moving in. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get into another high water threat or two.

Looking even farther down the road, another much colder than normal period looks possible to close out March and begin April. Sigh.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.


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21 Responses to Winter Storm THREAT For Saturday

  1. Chris Mercer says:

    If March were to end today, this would be the sixth snowiest March on record in both Lexington and Louisville. March of 1960 was the snowiest at both climate sites, with over 22 inches at Louisville and over 17 inches at Lexington.

    • Schroeder says:

      March 1960 is a March that I will never forget.

      • Schroeder says:

        Yesterday, it snowed all day long here in Taylor County. estimating at the end of the day that we ended up with at lease five inches. It wasn’t heavy snow but was accumulating and coming in bands from the east / northeast. That upper level low pressure system which was just east of Louisville was stalled out and was working with another low pressure off the mid- Atlantic. When it cleared here yesterday, the energy from the upper level low just east of Louisville was transferred to the low pressure in the Atlantic bringing those folks a major Nor’Easter. Very interesting storm event.

        • Schroeder says:

          Thanks Chris, Your discussion in your blog this morning on the next weather event will depend on where the western edge of the upper level trough will be. As you said in your blog it is yet to be determined. The trough could be a little more to the south and west. Those’s to the west of this trough could have a bout with severe weather, meaning strong thunderstorms because of the temperature contrast.

  2. Virgil says:

    Noooope!

  3. JimCVG says:

    Okay it’s March – I get it. But I’d still take a heavy snow over a cold rain any day. For once, can one of these models be on target and get us one last deep snow?

    • Jessica says:

      I wish it would move to Somerset some we have got prentend snow, that’s it … bring it here just 1 good snow I’ll be happy but it never works that way.

  4. Troy says:

    As long as that mess stays in the northern 3rd of the state all is well…

    • Terry says:

      ….Nothing shy with the models for targeting the heavier rains in far SE KY: Here is us watching the Cumberland rise in the near future.

  5. Jimbo says:

    The models look like the Huntington/Ashland area might finally have a chance. But seeing as how this whole Winter has played out, I would bet the heavy snow band sets up 30 to 40 miles north or south.

  6. Wow says:

    The models are very similar to my map…

  7. Wondering says:

    Cincinnati mets are downplaying it. The one I read this morning said south of the river is likely to be all rain.

  8. humpman67 says:

    It seems like winter has taken up permanent residence.

  9. Jeff Hamlin says:

    NAM trying to move south? Bleh.

  10. BubvaG says:

    CB, seems the title should be more specific, since barely any of the state is in the expected path 😉

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