Updating The Winter Storm THREAT

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s our third Winter Storm THREAT in less than two weeks, and it’s a system poised to bring a swath of heavy snow to part of the region. The impact time is late Friday night through Saturday and Saturday night.

I’ve set the stage for this potential all week long, with a MEGA temperature gradient feeding low pressure moving in from the northwest.

Here’s the risk area I put out last night on WKYT…

My current THREAT map focuses a little farther south…

In a setup like this, you have to anticipate additional trends in the models. The morning model trend was farther south, and that’s why I’m giving myself additional wiggle room on that map.

A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued across northern Kentucky, but we will need additional counties to be added to this farther south into Kentucky and all the way into West Virginia…

I mentioned the models have shifted south, all showing the heaviest snow along and south of the Ohio River…

NAM

GFS

Canadian

A few thoughts:

  • Additional model trends are very likely, with the heavy snow swath shifting a little south or north.
  • At this point in the game, a massive shift is not very likely.
  • Heavy, wet snow will be noted within the above corridor. Several inches will be possible.
  • You will also note the SUPER sharp cutoff on the southern and northern edges of the snow swath. A few miles could make all the difference in the world between a cold rain and thumping snow.
  • Outside of the narrow swath of heavy snow, heavy rain will fall. 1″-2″ of rain may cause local high water issues. Some thunder is also possible, even with the snow.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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42 Responses to Updating The Winter Storm THREAT

  1. Virgil says:

    #TeamNorth

  2. BubbaG says:

    North Kentucky can have it. No offense 🙂

  3. Terry says:

    Jimbo….this may finally be your storm!

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      Well, not according to the Charleston NWS!!! LOL They’ll probably put out a forecast saying “Mostly sunny, high of 38”

    • Jimbo says:

      I will not be sold on this until I see it happening in my area. The current model trends are already moving it away from the Huntington/Ashland area. It takes a near perfect scenario to breach the layer of warm air that stays parked over the tri-state

  4. JimCVG says:

    Let the bread and milk run begin!

    • Prelude says:

      Why? It’s nearing the end of March. You can get a foot of snow and most roads will be completely fine this time of year. No need for a bread and milk run. Temperatures will be marginal just enough cold air for a wet snow event. Sun angle this time of year will take care of any road issues, especially on the main traveled roadways.

      • c-BIV says:

        Exactly…what he said ^^^^^

        • JimCVG says:

          The bread and milk runs are almost always unnecessary, so I was trying to be sarcastic. I’m just looking forward to a possible big snow for my region. If we’re going to have below average temps and precipitation, we may as well have a big snow.

          • Prelude says:

            My bad a bit slow on the sarcasm lol. I agree with your statement if it’s going to be cold might as well snow.

          • Swamp Fox says:

            Hey Jim! I’m with you. I’m really hoping we get slammed, even if it only sticks around for a day or two. There’s a lot of kids (and adults) that haven’t seen a truly appreciable amount of snow like 9″ – 12″ in their lives. It’s worth watching it fall and being able to get out and play around in. Very exciting for the kiddos. Here’s hoping it takes place!

            I’m glad I found this site, great job Chris! ^5

            — Swampy

    • BubbaG says:

      Plus if as heavy as predicted: Batteries, candles, blankets, board games, etc 😉

  5. Rodger in Dodger says:

    No matter who gets what with this event, this March has been historic and has BLOWN the winter predictions of many mets. Rodger in Dodger

  6. Schroeder says:

    Too early to tell where that trough well set up. At the present it has not moved. All of Kentucky is still being influence by the upper level trough. High pressure is still well to our west. I would expect it to move east as the clipper system evolves and moves southeast. Where the clipper enters the state is still a guess.

    • Schroeder says:

      The weather this month is exactly what is needed to keep the plant life dormant. Here in the hills of central Kentucky all the trees have not broken dormancy. In the valleys of the state, especially near the Ohio River dormancy has broken and the growing season has begun. I hope it doesn’t warm up too quickly or we could have damage to plants in late April. #teamspring

  7. Jirvin1120 says:

    Right in my area! Eastern Mason County! #Teamsprimg is losing

  8. Shan in NKY says:

    How confident are you in the risk area? I know that this is not a precise thing as weather is fickle, but do you see the storm shifting enough to NOT hit NKY at all? Or should be brace ourselves?

  9. EKY_jm says:

    Looks like it’s already shifting away from Ashland and the Tri-State area according to the Euro model. Typical! Snow just doesn’t like to fall here!

  10. Kevin says:

    Can we be fine with winter already?? This is ridiculous. I hate Kentucky weather. Can’t wait to retire south.

  11. Ruth says:

    Im planning to travel from SE Ky to visit a friend in Tazewell, VA on Saturday. Im wondering if I should cancel my trip!

    • StormtrackerWV says:

      I would wait and see what tomorrow’s forecasts show, Miss Ruth, but the NWS forecast office in Blacksburg, Virginia does the forecasting for Tazwell and right now they are calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow on Saturday with an additional half an inch Saturday, so it would be a slick drive for sure (even if it just rains). I’m nervous but cautiously optimistic at this point–as others have pointed out, this storm hasn’t “gelled” yet, and the temperatures aren’t predicted to be really cold; however, you will be driving some windy roads on that trip and at some high elevations where the snow may stick at times. Just hang in there and see what tomorrow’s forecast brings and see how you feel about it then and if you do go, just take your time and please drive safely 🙂

  12. Tom says:

    The NAM jumps much further north in the new run. It contradicts the EURO from a few hours ago…and is way out of line with its own earlier runs. Ideas?

    • BubbaG says:

      April spring break last year mid and north Ohio got a big snow. I was up there. Cleveland got a few inches, but about 8″ just south of Cleveland.

    • BubbaG says:

      This time of year, no surprise there. Normally this time of year we are talking bad storms of the wet and windy kind.

  13. KBinNKY says:

    I know Chris tweeted that there would be no ice, I’m sure he’s right, so does anyone have an idea why the NAM has a big strip of ice for SE IN and NKY? http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=zr_acc&rh=2018032212&fh=66&r=us_ov&dpdt=

  14. Jim Hamm says:

    Snow…go away. I am done with you and the cold weather.

  15. Tom says:

    The new GFS run looks like a repeat of the noon run to me…very little difference. The storm/snow track is roughly the same with no movement north or south.

  16. C.M. says:

    All these possibilities- All the predictions………LET IT SNOW. 2 FEET

  17. C.M. says:

    SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW

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