Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the Winter Storm THREAT for parts of the region to start the upcoming weekend.

In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts haven’t changed, with the greatest threat for heavy snow across the north and northeast. That said, the model trend, sans the NAM, has been nudging this thing a little farther south.

The European Model precipitation type shows the fine line we are walking, between heavy rain an heavy snow. Notice there is only a VERY narrow band of mixed rain and snow, with a touch of sleet to start…

This is not a freezing rain setup.

Here’s the snow map from that run of the European…

The European Ensembles have a similar placement…

The GFS has a similar placement for the heaviest snows…

The afternoon run of the RGEM (short range Canadian) only goes out through midday Saturday, and is very similar to the European…

Last night, and countless times over the years, I talked about the NAM overdoing Warm Air Advection. That’s a well known bias of the model, which usually results in precipitation being too far north. After a normal looking 12z run, the 18z run blew up to the north…

Again, that looks too far north and too widespread because the model overdoes Warm Air Advection.

My earlier thoughts remain my current thoughts on the areas most at risk…

Here is a look at the Winter Storm Watch for the north…

I should have a First Call For Snowfall late tonight. Have a great evening and take care.


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16 Responses to Thursday Evening Update

  1. Drew says:

    It seems the models have shifted south of the Ashland area; however, CB continues to keep the Ashland area in the greatest risk section of his map? Can anyone explain this to me??

    • Jimbo says:

      I think it means he is staying with his original thoughts even though the models have shifted some. But the locals in our area are going with almost all rain which would indicate the system is going north and that is rather confusing.

      • jackson says:

        I dont live in WV but live in their viewing area in Pike County and WSAZ’s Tony Cavalier said the sweet spot for heavy snow in WV is the l64 Corridor between Huntington and Charleston.

        • Jimbo says:

          I missed him. I saw the woman on his channel at 4pm and she said mostly rain. Maybe something changed between 4 and 6.

          • StormtrackerWV says:

            NWS Charleston won’t put out any advisories or warnings until there is at least 2 inches of snow on the ground and at least 5 weather-related wrecks are reported on I-64, that’s their new advisory/warning criteria!

            • Beka Williamson says:

              Nailed it!

            • Megan says:

              They are ridiculous! It’s like it kills them to issue an advisory/watch/warning for our area. It’s almost like they have such an issue with CB that they won’t issue things just to spite him. Last time they didn’t issue anything until way after the event started

            • Jimbo says:

              I think they are waiting this time since they issued watches and advisories on Monday morning for yesterday’s system. And we all know how that turned out. A total bust.

              • Beka Williamson says:

                They like to be accurate as often as a broken clock…

              • Megan says:

                I can understand that, but they do this every single time an event comes around. Not too long ago it was pouring the snow and the roads were horrible, yet they refused to even issue a special weather statement until about an hour after it had already started and gotten bad. They would not issue anything and I can’t help but to think it was due to CB calling them out and they got mad. They could forecast an inch for WV and they would issue something but when it comes to these few counties in their NWS area, it’s like pulling teeth to get them to issue anything. I don’t get it.

                • Josh m says:

                  I at least think that the girl on wsaz is better looking than Chris Bailey!!!! I think a blind chipmunk could get the forecast right more than ole Tony

  2. EKY_jm says:

    I see those Winter Weather Advisories creeping eastward as the day progresses!

  3. Brett Morris says:

    This sums it up quite nicely. SREF plumes for Charleston, WV show anywhere from 0” to 8” of snow with a mean of 2”. This snow band is super narrow and pinpointing where it will set up is tough.

    • Jimbo says:

      I can’t say where it will set up. But I can say where it won’t set up, the area from Asland east towards Charleston WV along I64.

  4. Helen Klump says:

    So Louisville is at risk or slight risk? I’m confused. Local weather says we will get nothing but rain on Saturday. However, I’ve leaned that Chris is usually spot on when it comes to this stuff.

  5. Jimmie says:

    Chris, what are your thoughts on the ice potential? Is there enough cold air aloft to largely avoid FR in the transition zone?

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