Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are pushing across the state today, with more rounds rolling through Thursday. This sets the stage for an increased potential for flooding across many areas of the Commonwealth.

The latest runs of the NAM and Hi Res NAM are similar to my ran forecast, with a healthy corridor of 2″-4″ rains, with locally higher amounts…

Both model runs actually have some 5″ amounts showing up. Those runs match up well with my ongoing rain forecast…

Some local 5″ amounts are possible.

The latest Canadian rain forecast also matches up well…

The poor GFS was the last to figure out the heavy rain was actually hitting Kentucky and not splitting us (like it insisted on for days), but it’s matching up with everything else finally…

Here’s what the GFS looked like on Monday…

It had ZERO model support from anything else and is a far cry from what it started showing on Tuesday. I suspect blindly following the GFS is why Flood Watches have been way too slow in being issued. I’m guessing those Flood Watches will be issued to start the day… I think… Maybe… Possibly?

Chilly showers will finally move away early Friday, with mainly dry weather from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Another cold front moves in Saturday night into Easter Morning, with some chilly showers and even a slight chance for some flakes…

Things improve by Easter afternoon, then things turn ugly again into next week.

I will update our flood threat later today, so check back. Until then, here are your tracking toys to start the day…

Have a good one and take care.