Winter Storm Threat Friday Night and Saturday Morning

Good evening, everyone. I went ahead and put out a Winter Storm THREAT on WKYT earlier today because… Well… Why not? This threat is for Friday night and Saturday morning, with the potential for a swath of several inches of snow.

I will get to that in a moment, but first we have a few rain and snow showers that may graze the north and northeast this evening…

A hard freeze is on the way tonight with readings in the 20s.

After some decent weather from Thursday into the first half of Friday,

things begin to change late Friday as a storm system rolls our way. Heavy rains will increase quickly, then we will see much of that going over to snow Friday night and early Saturday.

Here’s my first “odds” map for the Winter Storm THREAT…

Obviously, the track of the low will have the main say in where the heavy snow band sets up. The risk areas can go a little north or south as we get closer.

The WPC has a similar through process, but is a littler broader with the potential for 4″+ snows…

The European Model has a major hit…

So does the NAM…

The GFS is similar…

Temps by Sunday morning may reach the teens for areas that may have snow on the ground.

For some perspective on how extreme this potential is, let’s use Lexington as the focal point. It will only take 1″ of snow to be a top 10 snowiest April on record and 2.9″ to crack the top 5. The top spot belongs to 1987 with 5.9″. That was from a storm that dumped 30″ in the mountains of eastern Kentucky.

For temps, Lexington has only reached the teens on 3 days and 2 of those were from April, 1875, when record keeping was a little sketchy.

Sigh. #temspring continues to be a downer.

I will update things later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.


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39 Responses to Winter Storm Threat Friday Night and Saturday Morning

  1. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB!

    If we look at the progression of models since last night, it seems the trend is more east and north for each update. What would stop this from continuing? Is the Euro a good model to use for frozen systems this late in the year? As you can tell, lots of “?”.

  2. Stephanie Lanter says:

    I remember that 87 storm. I was a senior in high school and had friends get stuck on Jellico Mountain while going to FL for spring break. It was crazy!

  3. nasdaq says:

    considering my power just fixed, I like to see the models trending more north with this snow

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris.
    Oh well this just another chapter in this mixed up weather of this winter. Still looking like it misses the southern half of the state, so that’s normal. Another heavy rain maker ~sigh~. We need sunshine and warmth. Come on team spring! Fight!

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      Spring will win sooner or later, but with outside interference from #TeamSummer, I bet. 😉

      • BubbaG says:

        Counting on a more east and north result due to apparent trend so far. Also willing it, but the bigger snow we got did not show a trend like this. Lot of trees especially with the water logged ground could go down. At least hope for more slush and less accumulating snow 🙂

    • Terry says:

      I know Coffeelady….cold rain yet again. I think the near misses for now almost 5 months straight plus colder than average overall winter season has made this one of the most miserable winters I can remember for SE KY anyways. It the same people getting snow and same missing with cold rain but ALL suffering from cold fatigue…sigh

      • Jimbo says:

        I think I saw this same song and dance two weeks ago. I hope this is not the sequel, but I fear for my area it will be yet another miss. Odd thing, two weeks ago, I didn’t even get the usual 35 degree rain.

        • Terry says:

          WPC nearly has you at 70% of exceeding 4 inches….maybe this will finally be your storm. Even if it works out for you finally, it will flash melt and likely leave a mess behind only. Just too late in the year for a lasting ground cover.

          • Jimbo says:

            I totally agree. The ground here can’t get much wetter than it is now. And I know it will flash melt. But after 2 years of almost nothing, beggars can’t be choosers.

            • Terry says:

              I know…I still want it to shift south so I want feel left out, as sad as that is!

              • Crystal In Pikeville says:

                Know how you feel Terry I just saw something on wx risk that says east KY is back in the snow game,I know how you feel on left out lol.

              • Jimbo says:

                The NAM seems to always over estimate the amount of precipitation. Just saw on local news April 4 was the 31 year anniversary of the great April 87 snowstorm. I was living in Charleston WV at the time and received about 25 inches. That could have easily been the biggest snowstorm ever for Charleston but a lot of melting took place early on. Some places further south topped 30 inches I think.

  5. Terry says:

    Chris, I blame this awful start to spring on you for this reason: You started #teamspring too early during the middle of winter…haha☺

    Next year, you need to wait until March at least.

  6. Virgil says:

    #TeamSummer

  7. Chris Mercer says:

    We hit 80 degrees in Lexington in February this year. The only other time was 1996, when March was very snow and we had measurable snow in April.

  8. C-BIV says:

    Long term outlook from NWS for April-June is for below normal temps in Ohio Valley. Take that #teamsummer lol.

  9. Prelude says:

    The 00z NAM just did a mic drop in April for snow Friday night.

    • Lucy says:

      What does it show for Louisville/Southern IN?

      • Snow Loving Librarian says:

        Looks like 8-10 inches (12 inches in spots) from the picture on Twitter. I’m in East Louisville, and right on the cusp of the dark purple/neon pink for a thumping. Looks like Southern Indiana gets a little less.

  10. Prelude says:

    Question I have will snow ratios be at 10:1? or more like a 7:1-8:1 ratio?

  11. Prelude says:

    Also winds could go 30-40 mph after midnight on Friday night, combine that with heavy wet snow falling and you have a Kentucky version of a nor’easter.

  12. Jimmie says:

    8-12″ heavy wet snow on trees that are budding out is going to be as bad as a moderate ice storm. Hopefully this is a dry snow.

  13. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    How’s eastern KY looking guys on latest runs?? Anyone??

  14. BubbaG says:

    Models giveth and take away, via solution adjustments. AKA trends. Interesting if the east and north trend does not continue.

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