Watching The Winter Storm THREAT

Good Thursday, folks. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for Friday night and Saturday. A developing storm system will take aim at the bluegrass state and lower Ohio Valley, bringing the potential for several inches of slushy spring snows. Say that 3 times. ๐Ÿ™‚

Let’s think of today as the calm before the winter storm. Things are frigid this morning, with lows into the 20s. The afternoon looks pretty good with highs in the 50s for many. Areas of the west and south may reach 60 or a little better.

Let’s get into Friday and let the fun begin. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Highs can reach the 60 degree mark by early Friday afternoon as winds begin to crank.
  • Clouds will quickly roll in during the afternoon, with rain developing as we get deeper into the day and evening.
  • Temps then drop rapidly from northwest to southeast, as our storm system skirts by to our south and east.
  • A band of VERY heavy snow will set up across the state, potentially putting down several inches of wet snow.
  • It will likely snow hard enough to cover roads for a while later Friday night into Saturday morning.
  • Where does this band of heavy snow set up? Here’s my current thinking (and this will likely change today)…

  • That can be adjusted north or south, depending on how the track of the low goes.
  • South of the band of heavy snow, rain will be heavy and could cause some local flooding issues.
  • Temps Friday night drop all the way into the 20s, with highs on Saturday staying in the 30s for several areas. Winds will make it feel colder.
  • Saturday night is an interesting night. If we can indeed get snow and keep it on the ground, temps can tank. Lows may reach the teens for one of the very few times on record in April.

A quick check of the computer models show the NAM going crazy with this storm…

The NAM tends to get a little fired up, so those numbers are likely too high.

The GFS is a little more gentle, but still historic for the month…

The European Model is a little farther south with the new run…

The rest of the weekend looks amazingly cold for this time of the year, with the chance for some areas to not get out of the 30s for highs. Another system then moves in late Sunday into early next week and may bring another round of snow and rain.

If you’re looking for some good news… I’m FINALLY starting to see the end of this pattern. Things begin to really change late next week into the following week. Go CRAZY!!!! ๐Ÿ™‚

I will have updates later today, including the often imitated, but never duplicated “First Call For Snowfall”. Make it a good one and take care.

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34 Responses to Watching The Winter Storm THREAT

  1. Lona says:

    Could we see/hear some thunder snow with this storm?

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      I was thinking the same thing Lona! If it plays out the way the models show it, I think it’s almost a guarantee, at least in some places!

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Come what may. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  3. BlizzardTim says:

    Winter storm watches for 3-6โ€ of snow now up for Southern Indiana,Ohio and central and northern Kentucky!

  4. Tallen H. says:

    Just heartbreaking for us gardeners,and I truly believe this is my last Kentucky winter.

  5. Kim says:

    โ€œOften imitated, never duplicatedโ€

    True DISNEY dork here because I LOL at that one.

  6. Prelude says:

    All the 6z model runs this morning have trended way weaker and much further south for Friday nights system.

    • Xavier says:

      So the snow chances decrease because of weaker system? And does that put the snow zone further south?

    • BubbaG says:

      Heck, it can move south and get weaker. Make it so! Slush is alright, since doesn’t stick to trees ๐Ÿ™‚

    • C-BIV says:

      The off run doesn’t surprise me at all…it will come back around most likely on 12Z.

    • BubbaG says:

      Maybe this is why CB just tweeted what he did.

    • C-BIV says:

      Well, the 12Z is going easy and north. Talk about a 180 in the past 2 runs. The low coming out of Rockies is moving too fast for the wave coming from north to phase and cause it to slow down and dig. Looks like a possible total bust for all the record snowfall potential leading up to this point.

  7. winter lover says:

    Winter storm watch has been posted here in western,ky. YIKES!!!! a rare winter storm in the making for April. !!!!

  8. Cold Rain says:

    Our little wave has gotten much weaker so the trend is south with less precip..Still waiting for some 80’s but it’s coming soon..

  9. Jessica says:

    I’m going to pretend I didn’t read any of that except for the next to last paragraph. Thanks for the excellent news! We are so ready over at my house!!

  10. Terry says:

    I guess it is almost safe to say that far SE KY will continue the trend of no Winter Storm Watches/Warnings for over 2 years straight now. I think the last one was the Feb 2016 storm.

  11. Virgil says:

    Hey Chris finally gives #TeamSpring some much needed hope.

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, the tweet just now by CB suggests that. That’s how I am reading it anyway, since don’t want the snow.

      • AC says:

        Still wishing, aren’t we Bubba?
        Hey, it’s not snowing outside right now, is it? Yay!

        I was just told I read too much into things. I don’t think I’m the only one guilty of that. “Seeing what they want to see.”

        Too worried about tomorrow to enjoy today.
        Let tomorrow do what it wants to do.
        A few inches of slush is not going to kill all the trees like you might think, or contrary to what other people might think.

        • BubbaG says:

          Models seem to be saying same thing. Factor in CBs tweet, seems anecdotally more valid it is a back off. If CB liked what the models are saying, seems know way he would not tweet a tidbit about it instead of what he did. Willing is good ๐Ÿ™‚

          We shall see.

          • AC says:

            You’d save a lot of time if you just told everyone you hated snow. That’s what your messages imply.

            When the nam goes bam we don’t want to hear it. When it fizzles out, we root for it like its going out of style. We always want to have it both ways.

            Personally, I would be happy with a warm-up. But I also like the snow, and three inches of heavy wet snow is not enough to cause significant issues. I’ll take whatever comes either way.

        • BubbaG says:

          Yep, new tweet confirms.

  12. nasdaq says:

    NAM backing off big time, lets see if the euro backs off as well

  13. Tom says:

    Still a few inches of snow per the NAM for eastern Ky. It’s hard to phase these systems when the storm is still offshore…but now it’s coming ashore and the models come into better focus. I suspect the midnight run will be accurate. Until then….

  14. Melva says:

    Mr. Bailey posted this is moving away from us. Thank goodness. Ready for sunshine and warmth, my friends!

    • BubbaG says:

      So the trend was correct. It is like the models late last night reveresed course and now have corrected to the trend they were showing and caught up from lost time.

  15. jreeves says:

    remember when the models used to jump all over the place in the long run and at 2 days out they’d be locked in. Seems like they do the opposite of that now. They lock onto something more than a week out with very little shifting and completely lose it 2 days prior. pretty strange.

  16. Cold Rain says:

    Suppressed south and weaker..Story of this winter..Guess the models missed the colder [email protected] early on..Still would not give up until 12z tomorrow if you’re wanting a power outage snow..Just don’t make models like they use

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