Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. We continue with the Winter Storm THREAT for Friday night and Saturday morning. The early day trend among the models is now for a much weaker storm system with a slight push farther to the south and east.

For those new to the game. this is a heads up to the POTENTIAL of 4″ or more of snow falling in parts of our region. If confidence increases, we go to an Alert. If confidence decreases, we scrap the Threat and go along our merry way.

Winter Storm Watches are up for much of the region…

If we look at the forecast models, we find the NAM going from one extreme to the other. The new run puts down a few inches, mainly in the east…

The GFS is also lighter than earlier runs, but isn’t a wimpy as the what the NAM shows…

My thoughts a more in line with what the GFS is showing and I will have a First Call For Snowfall map coming on WKYT-TV starting at 4.

This system moves away VERY quickly Saturday morning, leaving behind a cold, but mainly dry day.

One reason we are likely seeing a weaker trend showing up, is because the follow up system moving in by late Sunday looks stronger…

That could bring another round of snow to parts of the region, to go along with a very ugly looking pattern into early next week.

My time is short, so that’s all you get for now. I will have another update this evening, so check back.

Have a good one and take care.


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25 Responses to Thursday Afternoon Update

  1. Ron says:

    My guess it is a lot to do with nothing. We shall see

  2. Jimbo says:

    It looks like this is slipping away. I think it is good news for most of the folks on here. But yet another disappointment for me in my area. Also not the first time this year that a storm got pushed and weakened by a followup system. The second storm, if stronger, will lead to more rain.

    • AC says:

      Just what we wanted!

    • Terry says:

      The jet stream pattern just hasn’t favored much for mine or your region this winter. In far SE KY, the lows need to stay much farther south and go up the Appalachian Mts, hence App Runners…Ohio Valley track does nothing down this way as the track of the low is either on top of or NW of me. For you as well, I have noticed that some of the best and most accumulation has been from App Runners over the years that have often hit both our regions at the same time. I am fine with nothing now; it is April ☺

      See 1987 April Biggie link:

      http://wcyb.com/news/local/remember-when-a-foot-of-snow-fell-in-april

      • Jimbo says:

        I am with you for the most part. But the snow lover in me plus the fact it is so difficult to get more than an inch in my area makes even the slightest chance of getting more than that exciting. No matter the time year.

      • nasdaq says:

        Yep, this season pretty much confirms, It’s app runner or notta for SE KY. really fascinating stuff when you think about it, rest of the state had above average snowfall.

        • Jimbo says:

          Yes, my area of western WV has been way below normal snow for two years. Area’s North, East and West have done well this year, much better than last year. It appears the only area as bad as mine is far eastern and southeastern KY.

    • BubbaG says:

      It’s kind of wild though that the models showed an obvious due east progression for over a full day and then late last night did an apparent reverse to the west. Then it looks like if we filled in for that one reversal, it looks like the models pretended the shift back west never happened and fits where it would’ve been, sans the sudden western shift. What’s up with that?

      • AC says:

        It probably falls into that pit-like mythical area of “feedback errors.” Or initialization errors, maybe. Not sure. Models could’ve “blinked” and saw something else for a run then corrected back as if something was out of focus on the previous run.

  3. nasdaq says:

    winter storm watch btw

  4. Bill L says:

    I’ve been prepping for a bull’s eye hit with at least two inches!

  5. Chris Mercer says:

    I would consider anything more than a couple of inches a major snow at this time of year. The temp hit 25 in Lexington this morning!

    • Terry says:

      I had 27 at the house in Harlan this morning. It seems that about 25 is the magical cutoff for damaging plants and trees. If you see below 25, vegetation quickly dies. It appears I have no damage at the house with the leaves still green on the trees and more sensative plants like hostas.

  6. SpaceGhost says:

    WSAZ is calling for a coating to 1” at best.
    I think the models would be much more
    accurate if they would simply remove
    any blue before revealing them.

  7. Jeff Hamlin says:

    No complaints from me if no snow. Looks like next weekend will be awesome. 🙂

  8. Troy says:

    A win in the sense that southern KY will see little to no snow, unfortunately that also means yet another round of rain that we DO NOT need and most do not want… Can only speak for myself but I’m ready for some drought-like conditions already!

  9. Jimmie says:

    A rapidly diminishing snow threat suits me just fine. Lack of a snow pack might mean that the weekend won’t get as cold as feared. Maybe we can avoid dropping into the teens.

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