Stormy Times On The Way

Good Monday to one and all. Heat and humidity continue out there today, but the thunderstorm threat is about to take control of our pattern once again. Rounds of storms are on the way and may cause local high water issues as the weak wears on.

In addition to the stormy setup, I’m also looking long range toward fall and winter. Woot!

Scattered showers and storms will be floating around today into Tuesday, with rounds of storms waiting to kick into high gear starting Wednesday. That’s a setup that should last through the rest of the week and into the coming weekend.

A front moves in and slows down right on top of the bluegrass state. That will combine with abundant moisture, some of it streaming from the western Gulf of Mexico, to create an environment conducive for rounds of storms to roll across our pat of the world…

This setup can give us a few strong storms, but it’s the heavy rain threat that is most concerning. Once again, we find ourselves in a pattern that can produce, at least, local flash flooding issues. The rain numbers from the GFS are impressive through the weekend…

This pattern may persist into the following week. Watch how the numbers jump even more if we add in week two…

As mentioned earlier, a few storms will flare up today and some of those may be strong and put down very heavy rains…

Many of the seasonal models are just now getting into the winter months, and I’ve been showing a few. The common theme of the various seasonal models is for a weak to moderate El Nino to develop well off the coast of South America. The farther west of South America, the better the chance for a cold winter in our region. Those same models are also showing a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska. This was there back in the winters of 13/14 and 14/15, and was something we said would lead to some healthy winters around here, and both delivered the goods.

The latest JAMSTEC Seasonal Model shows our warm pool and El Nino developing for fall. Here’s the September-November average…

Watch the cold signal blossom across the country for the same time period…

Winter just now gets into the range of the JAMSTEC and it’s showing a contination of the GOA warm pool and the El Nino. Here’s the December-February average…

Watch how the model cranks the colder than normal temps from the southern plains through the eastern half of the country…

Regardless of what any seasonal model shows for actual temps and precipitation, we take them with a grain of salt. That goes without saying. That said, the takeaway from the models is the GOA warm pool and the El Nino placement. If those develop, our odds for an exciting winter increase.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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6 Responses to Stormy Times On The Way

  1. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for the update. Enjoying the current weather from the comfort of my home. Have a great day everyone.

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I’ll be ready for winter talk in about 4 months.

  3. Matt says:

    It seems we could just copy and paste the same 7 day forecast from May thru August. Hot, humid, chance of storms and flooding rains.

  4. Matt says:

    Ouch. Heat index already at 100 in Maysville at 1100 in the morning.

  5. blueyz79 says:

    Was thinking of swimming today. 20% chance of rain was the forecast locally and it was hot and humid. Seems to be going well. Get some stuff outside and hear thunder. Storm blows in and knocks several big trees down, very high wind for a short period, and no had been raining the hardest of the year at my place for the past 10 minutes. Raining so hard I have a pond in my yard and the creek by the house overflowed. First time all year.

  6. Donna L Hepp says:

    I’m ready for “winter talk” anytime!! Bring on the forecast of snow!! You can always put on more clothes….there’s only so much you can take off……legally;)

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