Summer Sizzle To A Cooler Setup

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a nice weather day in progress across the region, with lower humidity levels and fairly pleasant temps. A little summer sizzle is on the way for the next few days, but a stormy setup into next week looks to usher in a much cooler overall pattern for the country.

Highs today range from 90 in the west, to the low and middle 80s east. Humidity levels will give us a very comfortable feel to the air.

Friday into Saturday will see the steam returning. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s and low 90s, with some higher numbers in the west and the poorly maintained/placed airport thermometers. Humidity levels come back up some, but nothing like what we had last week.

Isolated showers and storms will be noted on Saturday, with showers  and storms really increasing by Sunday and Monday…

This action is ahead of the first of two cold fronts set to impact our weather next week. The second front arrives late next week into the following weekend. Watch the waves of below normal temps take over…

Both of those will knock the numbers down, but it’s a fundamental shift in the overall pattern that’s very common during a developing El Nino.

Everything from the operational models to the ensembles are locking in on this change taking place. I’ve also posted several seasonal models showing the transition and we can add the CAS to the mix. Here’s the model forecast for August-October…

That look digs even deeper for the September-November period…

Make it a great day and take care.


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7 Responses to Summer Sizzle To A Cooler Setup

  1. TennMark says:

    On this day in history twenty three years ago, parts of the Midwest/Northern Plains were experiencing the first of several days of a devastating heat wave which later spread to the northeastern USA. While cities like Milwaukee and St Louis were hard hit, Chicago got most of the headlines as over 700 died there alone. Unlike past heat waves, 1995 had both extreme temperatures and extreme humidity.

    • Terry says:

      I believe I recall Chicago having 120+ heat indices during that event, correct?

      • TennMark says:

        Too worn out and lazy to look it up, but very likely true. I know one day Chicago Midway Airport recorded a 106 air temperature not including humidity. IIRC, somewhere in Wisconsin hit 81 (or higher?) dew point with a heat index at or near 130.

  2. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for the update. Does anyone actually know what the temperature really is in any location ? I don’t know what thermometer is the most accurate ? I remember the old mercury thermometers but those were taken away from us. Chris, in your blog this morning you seem convince that we are definitely pushing forward towards an El Nino. I hope this pans out. I learned from you the other day that a weak El Nino favors a snowy winter and a strong El Nino a wet warm winter for the Ohio Valley. Have a great day everyone.

  3. Jordan says:

    Hmm, I wonder if this is signaling an earlier start to Fall this year? I’d definitely be OK with that.

  4. BubbaG says:

    Seems the forecast by all mets understated the temperatures this week. Hotter than expected.

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