It’s Another Active Week Of Weather

Good Monday and welcome to another busy week of weather for the bluegrass state. A couple of systems will be rolling our way, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region. We will have a breakdown of those systems and a look ahead toward winter, courtesy of one of the more trusted seasonal models.

The scattered storms out there today shouldn’t be terribly widespread, with the best chance across the eastern half of the state…

This action will continue into Tuesday as the current upper low slowly moves to our east. That opens the door for the next system to influence our weather by Wednesday and Thursday. Guess what that brings? If you said more showers and thunderstorms… Congrats. Take a look…

Once again, the atmosphere looks primed to deliver some decent rains to our region. Additional high water issues will be possible. Once that system moves east… The assembly line throws the next one into the region for the weekend into early next week…

That one is being pushed by a very healthy trough digging into the central and eastern parts of the country. This could bring temps that go well below normal…

As we look down long and winding weather road toward winter, the European Seasonal Model now goes out through the month of February. This model has a lot of respect in the weather world, so it’s something I tend to give a little more credence to.

What I’m showing you is the 500mb anomaly averages for the entire months of December, January and February. This indicates where the troughs and ridges tend to set up in the means, and one can infer colder than normal weather in the troughs, and warmer than normal weather in the ridges.

December shows the mean trough settling into our region…

Notice how it hangs tough right on top of us into January…

By February, the trough becomes more elongated into the east, but it’s still there…

The Euro Seasonal is basically showing a setup for what would be a pretty harsh winter around here and has a throwback look to it.

It’s also interesting to note how the model looks pretty similar to what the JAMSTEC has been showing of late. I posted those maps a few weeks back and should get a new run of that seasonal model this week. Of course, I will share that as soon as I get it. 🙂

Another interesting note… This pretty much mirrors my initial winter thoughts I put out in early July: Looking Down The Weather Road

Have a great Monday and take care.

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3 Responses to It’s Another Active Week Of Weather

  1. Robdog says:

    Chris, thanks for the updates. Have a question for you regarding weather this weekend, specifically golf tournament in Lawrenceburg, 9:00 shotgun..will probably run through early afternoon hours…dry period? Thanks

  2. Machell says:

    Thanks Chris!

  3. Mike S says:

    Despite the pattern change that began around the middle of July or so, effectively entering the hottest period of the year, temperatures have not deviated from the 30-year norm by much at all. Since, July 15, Louisville has a negative 0.3 degree departure from normal. Lexington and Jackson are less than that. And Bowling Green is above normal.

    Doing some research, Lexington NWS has recorded a below normal summer (Jun-Aug) for 4 of the last 5 years. But, it’s looking like the summer of 2018 will not be among them.

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