Good Wednesday, everyone. We are officially on the downhill slide toward the Labor Day Weekend and we are doing so with an increase in showers and storms. This action is along and ahead of a cold front sweeping into the region from the northwest.
Will the showers and storms hang around into the holiday weekend? That’s a possibility and one I will touch on in a bit. I will also take a look deeper into fall, courtesy of the European Model.
Let’s begin with where we are today and roll forward.
Showers and storms increase across the state, especially this afternoon and evening. A few of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…
The front slows down on top of the region for Thursday and is likely to hang around through the upcoming Labor Day weekend. The end result would be for, at least, scattered storms around on a daily basis…
We will need to watch for the potential for too much rain to fall in some areas, leading to a local high water threat.
You notice a lot of action rolling across the Caribbean toward Florida and into the Gulf on the above animation. Neither the GFS or Canadian Models develop a full blown tropical system out of that mess, but the European Model has a different attitude.
Notice the Labor Day system rolling into south Florida…
That system crosses Florida and continues to develop into the Gulf and heads toward Louisiana a few days later…
It’s interesting to note that the European also has a hurricane heading toward Hawaii at the same time. We shall see how all that plays out over the next week or so.
In my last post, I showed how the CFS Seasonal Model was showing a cooler change really kicking in for the middle of September and carrying us into the beginning of October. The European is going in that direction too. Here’s the look for a 10 day period in the middle of September…
Here we have the opening 10 days of October…
The model gets there by developing some pretty anomalous troughs for so early in the fall season…
That’s a pretty interesting look that, if true, would argue for an early season frost threat.
Let’s get back to where we are today. I have your storm tracking toys for this Wednesday…
Have a good one and take care.
Chris maybe another Halloween snow or flurriesI can hope but no I hope the kiddies has a good Halloween night!! I love to think of fall.
Cold fronts becoming stationary over the Ohio Valley only tells me that the polar jet is weak. This may be a normal weather pattern, but who really knows ? I remember before Labor Day back in the year 1976, meteorologist were reporting that the cold fronts were moving very far south and east for this time of year. That year 1976 we had the coldest October and November on record and also the driest. The following winter, if anyone out there who is old enough to remember was very cold and dry with a couple of notable snowstorms.
Yes indeed I remember the brutal winters of the late 70’s we had.
Thanks Chris. I hope that the first 10 days of October in Florida are not too cool! That is when we will be on vacation and I am not really ready for cool weather or cold weather until after that. As long as we can sit out at night and enjoy the sound of the ocean without freezing to death we are good. Have a good hump day everyone.
I can I definitely agree with you about warm nights at the beach. It wasn’t too many years back when I was at Myrtle Beach during September—-beautiful weather pattern with 80s in the day and 60s by night. Unfortunately, there is almost always a good breeze blowing at the ocean and those 60s actual felt cold after dark and a tad uncomfortable for walking or sitting.