Good Sunday, folks. Showers and thunderstorms continued to flare up on Saturday, amid a very steamy atmosphere. These steamy storms will be noted on occasion for the rest of the Labor Day Weekend and into next week. That’s when we have to start watching to see what the tropics mean for our pattern.
You guys no I’m no huge fan of the GFS, but when it’s going good, I give it the credit it deserves. The past few days, the GFS has been far and away superior to any other model with picking up on the rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Folks, many of the models had NOTHING at all across the state and they are saying the same thing for the next few days. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps showing the potential for a few more rounds of showers and storms through Labor Day…
Obviously, these storms are fairly scattered, but can put down some torrential rains where they develop.
Like the GFS, I’m sometimes critical of the bureaucracy that is NOAA and the National Weather Service. Let me just show one reason why. These maps are all from NOAA but come two different branches. The one on the left shows expected precipitation today and the one on the right shows where thunderstorms may form today…
So, you have the WPC saying not a drop of rain falls in the Ohio Valley, but the SPC saying general thunderstorms could develop across the same area.
They do the exact same thing on Labor Day…
Folks, that’s beyond absurd. Presenting a clear message is not one of their strongpoints and that much change going forward.
Those toasty numbers hang tough through much of next week, but what happens with a tropical system heading across the Gulf will have big implications on how weather. That system is now cruising across the Caribbean with Florence well out in the Atlantic…
The GFS has been fairly consistent in taking the Gulf system toward Louisiana next week, then bringing some of that moisture toward Kentucky as a front slides in…
The model then digs a huge trough into the central and eastern parts of the country behind that into the following week…
That’s about the time some of the seasonal models have been suggesting a trend toward a much cooler pattern.
The Canadian Model is now trying to follow the GFS in bringing some tropical juice our way…
One thing is for sure, Kentucky seems to have turned into a magnet for tropical moisture over the past decade. Alberto already did the trick early this summer. Could another system or two bring additional rain our way this month? I wouldn’t bet against that happening at this point.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Looking at other weather predictions such as the upper level winds across the US and globally, I believe that the weather pattern for the Autumn and Winter 2018-19 are now in place.
The future cool down (if it works out) would be about on time for Chris’s first ‘Pot of Chili’ alert; it is usually around or after the 20th of September.
Right now, I would settle for just a bit of rain as I am running on over 3 weeks now since last 1 inch fell. It is amazing how my location can be repeatedly missed while the rest of the state has been plagued with rain almost daily. I hope this is not going to be a bad fire season as this is usually what happens in Harlan when the rain shuts off in August☹
Torrential rains it was. We had a 15% chance listed most places. And everywhere around here had that. And it rained everywhere. Surrounding countries and all. Rained hard enough to wash peoples gravel off their drives into the road, decent sized tree limbs in the road, and the whole road was covered for a time.
I had saw some prediction radars for the day. My area was in the white with the surrounding area in the .1 range. Well, .1 was the half to 1 minute mark as in about 5 minutes we had huge puddles standing in the yard and the creek was way up. Then it rained fairly hard for another good hour before going moderate.
What would be great is if the snow would over achieve a little once this year. Maybe instead of a 1-2 incher we can get a 10 incher here. My son is already talking about building a snow man and getting away from the rain. Has been raining so much this summer that our yard is constantly wet.
I built a snowman when we had that 20 inches back in January 2016. I figured that if I didn’t build it then I would never get another chance, as I’m 67 years old. I hope that the whole state of Kentucky gets record snow starting in November through March 2019. A real winter for a change, but this is all wishful thinking. I forgot to mention that I took a photo of the snowman I built and framed it and I hang it on the wall every Christmas.
Folks should have that perspective, regardless of age 😉
The “bureaucracy” that is NOAA and the National Weather Service.
CB, that is a graceful way of putting it. That’s what happens when you mix politics and agendas with actual science 😉
Thanks Chris. Don’t know about the tropics but I DO know it’s hot! But that’s ok. When it gets cold I have a feeling we will have it for a while. Hope everyone has a good and relaxing Sunday.