Flooding Update

Good afternoon, everyone. An amazing amount of rain continues to fall across the bluegrass state, leading to significant flooding issues. Several areas have picked up more than 6″ of rain this weekend and more is falling. Tropical moisture and a slow-moving front are a force to be reckoned with and none of this should come as a surprise to those of you reading the blog for the past week.

For the record… the center of what’s left of Gordon is passing tight on top of Kentucky…

The official forecast from the NHC for this was to always take it to near Chicago. Several models did so, too, but those are the ones I’ve talked about having big time convective feedback issues. Unfortunately, the weather community is increasingly becoming an echo chamber where everyone is forced to deliver the same message. Not here! 😉

The heaviest rain continues to fall across central and eastern Kentucky, with an uptick in thunderstorm action taking place. Some areas will pick up another 1″-3″ of rain through tonight and a few of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Still, it’s the significant flash flood threat stealing the show.

Your afternoon trackers…

Monday is a very cool day with many areas staying in the 60s. Low clouds will hang tough with a few showers around in the east and southeast.

Scattered showers and storms return for the middle and end of the week as we focus on Florence. This hurricane is going to be a powerful one that heads toward the Carolinas. This may very well be a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane…

cone graphic

The spaghetti plots from the various hurricane models are in line with that forecast…

The European Model continues to be consistent with a NC hit…

The model continues to stall this system in the Appalachian Mountains and Mid-Atlantic, bringing a devastating flood to many, with eastern Kentucky getting in on some of the action…

The new version of the GFS is similar to what the European is showing…

The soon to be replaced GFS is steal and wandering storm swept out to see by a deep trough…

The Canadian Model is a cross between the old GFS and the European Model…

The NAVY brings this system very far west toward our region…

At this point, I’m not going to bet against. at least, some impact on our weather from Florence. Stay tuned!

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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8 Responses to Flooding Update

  1. Terry says:

    There is a huge difference between Chicago and Lexington in air mileage for a low pressure positition: Thanks Chris for giving us more than the same beat on the drum of the GFS that the main weather media reports.

    I don’t say it enough, but your blogs are truly special!

    Like Chris has already said, I too don’t bet againstt Florence giving us at least some rain, especially far east KY where I live!

    • Schroeder says:

      Terry, I think you will get a good rain late this evening and over night. Hurricane Florence path is going to be very interesting to track. It is currently increasing in size and getting stronger and is moving towards North Carolina at the present. Please get prepared North Carolina to be safe.

  2. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for locating the remnants of Gordon. I must apologize for being so long winded with my first post. But as everyone knows who reads the comment section I like to discuss meteorology and this extreme rainfall was very interesting to follow and track. We had off and on heavy rainfall all day long and I will leave it at that. Have a great evening everyone.

  3. BubbaG says:

    In the defense of the models, the pressure should have been a good railway, but looks like the train came off the rails. Mother nature badger don’t give a shoot about no models.

  4. Terry says:

    Geeze, the odds are increasing for some Gulf development from the new disturbance in the Yucatan! Tropical Explosion!

  5. Terry says:

    Unbelievable! The rain shield has fell apart in Harlan Co…only 0.03 inches today.

  6. Mike S says:

    The first time since April 29 that Louisville has not reached a high temperature of at least 70 degrees

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