Good Monday, everyone. Historic rains fell across the state over the weekend as the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moved right on top of the state teamed up with a cold front to drench the state. Now, we are focusing on much cooler air to start the week and a monster Hurricane heading toward the Carolinas. This has a chance to impact our weather by the weekend.

The rainfall from the weekend was massive with several areas getting from 5″-9″ of rain. Severe flooding issues developed and some of those water issues are still ongoing early today in the east. This area could still be seeing some decent rains to start the day.

On a side note, Covington only hit 62 forĀ a high on Sunday, making it the coolest high temp ever recorded there on September 9th.

It’s a day that feels the part of fall. Lots of low clouds will be around, with areas of drizzle or light showers and temps mainly in the 60s for highs. Track away…

Tuesday is another cooler than normal day with a mix of sun and clouds, with isolated showers and storms going up. That action may increase a bit on Wednesday as temps return to the upper 70s and low 80s.

Hurricane Florence is in the process of exploding into a major hurricane as it churns toward the east coast. This continues to look like a monster hit for the Carolinas…

cone graphic

A Category 4 or 5 hurricane may be heading into the Carolinas by Thursday. That, obviously, would be a devastating hit.

Here’s another interesting map from the NHC. This one shows the potential for tropical storm force winds and the percentages do extend all the way into Kentucky…

Perhaps the most useful forecast tool is the spaghetti plot. This is a series of hurricane models showing the individual tracks. Here’s the latest run from those…

In terms of operational models. the GFS takes this onshore in North Carolina and brings the remnant low and heavy rain our way next weekend and then slows it all down into next week…

The European Model is a bit farther south with landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border…

Watch how Florence then rides toward the southern Appalachian Mountains and stalls, throwing rain into Kentucky…

That would cause historic flooding for Appalachia if It comes to pass.

The Canadian is slower in getting it onshore, but also brings some of the rain our way…

It’s still too early to make a call on what, if any, direct impact Florence will have on our weather. That said, my concern is it does bring heavy rain into regions already suffering.

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.