Cooler Weather As We Watch Florence

Good Monday, everyone. Historic rains fell across the state over the weekend as the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moved right on top of the state teamed up with a cold front to drench the state. Now, we are focusing on much cooler air to start the week and a monster Hurricane heading toward the Carolinas. This has a chance to impact our weather by the weekend.

The rainfall from the weekend was massive with several areas getting from 5″-9″ of rain. Severe flooding issues developed and some of those water issues are still ongoing early today in the east. This area could still be seeing some decent rains to start the day.

On a side note, Covington only hit 62 for a high on Sunday, making it the coolest high temp ever recorded there on September 9th.

It’s a day that feels the part of fall. Lots of low clouds will be around, with areas of drizzle or light showers and temps mainly in the 60s for highs. Track away…

Tuesday is another cooler than normal day with a mix of sun and clouds, with isolated showers and storms going up. That action may increase a bit on Wednesday as temps return to the upper 70s and low 80s.

Hurricane Florence is in the process of exploding into a major hurricane as it churns toward the east coast. This continues to look like a monster hit for the Carolinas…

cone graphic

A Category 4 or 5 hurricane may be heading into the Carolinas by Thursday. That, obviously, would be a devastating hit.

Here’s another interesting map from the NHC. This one shows the potential for tropical storm force winds and the percentages do extend all the way into Kentucky…

Perhaps the most useful forecast tool is the spaghetti plot. This is a series of hurricane models showing the individual tracks. Here’s the latest run from those…

In terms of operational models. the GFS takes this onshore in North Carolina and brings the remnant low and heavy rain our way next weekend and then slows it all down into next week…

The European Model is a bit farther south with landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border…

Watch how Florence then rides toward the southern Appalachian Mountains and stalls, throwing rain into Kentucky…

That would cause historic flooding for Appalachia if It comes to pass.

The Canadian is slower in getting it onshore, but also brings some of the rain our way…

It’s still too early to make a call on what, if any, direct impact Florence will have on our weather. That said, my concern is it does bring heavy rain into regions already suffering.

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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14 Responses to Cooler Weather As We Watch Florence

  1. Terry says:

    If it can reach close to KY and stall as many current models show, we could easily approach 10 inches from a system like Florence!!! Of course, all of the model runs will continue to change and we may stay dry before all is said and done.

    It may good that Harlan has stayed dry…still I can’t fully understand how my county can be so different in weather than the rest of the state. Yes, I understand how the mountains can sheer storms/rain apart; however, the mountains in Letcher and Pike county have not been missing the rain like here. Also, SW VA has even higher elevations but have also been hit hard with a lot rain since June. Harlan is definitely the outlier in the state when it comes to weather. It seems like when we have a major snow/rain event in Harlan, the rest of KY misses and vice-versa!

    • Schroeder says:

      Terry, missing the rain and snow is the same thing I experience in southwest Indiana when I was living there. The local meteorologists could not explain it. They came to call it the ” Old Evansville Split. ” Maybe your area will get the most snow this coming winter in the state ?

  2. Schroeder says:

    Storm total from remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon in Taylor County was 2.24 inches. For the month 3.50 inches so far, and for the year to date 48.58 inches. I think our average yearly rainfall for Taylor County is 52.00 inches, but not sure on that figure ? Hurricane Florence is going to be a challenge for meteorologist this up coming week. But, at the present it doesn’t look good for the outer banks of the Carolina’s ?

    • Schroeder says:

      In the meantime everyone enjoy the almost Fall like weather that we currently have. I just wish the sun would make it’s presents for the week ahead. Tired of all the clouds and rain and the awful humidity. I notices on the GFS model that some snow is showing up in Canada for the first time this season. Hopefully it will work it’s way to the Ohio Valley just in time for Thanksgiving week.

  3. I live in McDowell County, WV. The current storm path is not good for us to say the least. We received about 2 inches of rain just last night, was way above normal to begin with, and possible thunderstorms are still predicted every single day this week.

    The current path of Florence now has it stalling right over my particular region for days upon end, and with Gordon currently hitting us too, that’s not good.

    I have never ever seen a forecast model either with a 50/50 chance of tropical storm forced winds hitting us. Not even Hugo did that.

    Yes this storm definitely bears watching. I am definitely in trouble if this forecast pans out, and for personal reasons too, not just the possibility of losing my electricity and property. You would know if I told you the situation

    Please, please fine folks in KY wish us the best, and even more so VA and NC. We are going to get blasted badly enough. They are really going to have it rough, and VA has received more rain than we have this year. They need it less than we do right now, and that’s really saying something, since we’ve been blasted big time ourselves.

    What makes it even worse is September is almost always the best weather month for us each year, except only when a tropical storm takes place. Sadly, it looks like that’s exactly what will happen this Sept., and a really bad and destructive one at that. And we have already had the remnants of one tropical storm just hit us now.

  4. Cindy B says:

    4.5 inches from Gordon, Northern Jackson County, Ohio. Hopefully Florence will stay away!

  5. Mike S says:

    Bath County Mesonet site received nearly 6.50″ yesterday for a monthly total of 9.81″ through midnight.

  6. Faye says:

    We had 5.4 inches at my house in northern Jessamine. I thought that was a lot then read about totals in other counties, wow!

  7. Matt says:

    Wow, what a change. From 95+ heat indices everyday to 60s today.. Hopefully we can squeeze in several dry days before Florence comes in.

  8. Tom says:

    The new euro brings Florence west into the Ashland – Jackson – Pikeville area. This would be a disaster for points north and east and a semi-disaster in the other directions. This kind of flooding should not happen to anyone. WV, VA, and NC will become known as an ocean if 18 inches of rain fall.

    • John Austin says:

      I’m 6 miles outside of Ashland in Greenup Co. We got 4-5″ plus from Gordon and we can’t take another hit like that or its gonna get really bad.
      All the best in the path of this monster!!!

  9. Mike S says:

    I’m still not a big fan of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale adjustment. Nautical measurements such as knots should always take precedence over our inferior system of measurement. Such nautical measurements rely on latitude and longitude. Same with aircraft, reliance on latitude and longitude. So what if the corresponding miles per hour measurement does not align perfectly with knots. NO need to adjust anything. Just keep it the same and have the conversions in mph in parenthesis. So what if our “mph” conversion overlaps between categories. That is not the primary measurement anyway. If you are given a number in knots that corresponds with a category level of intensity, then you already know what to expect. The higher the knots, the higher the intensity thus higher potential damage. Sheesh. People all over the world who are affected by hurricanes do not have to suffer this ignominy as we do. We have to have special treatment because we still measure using an archaic system. Rant over.

  10. Terry says:

    When you start seeing rainfall numbers in inches that
    would be pretty impressive on a winter storm standard for snow prediction, it is a bit scary to say the least. Some data suggests double digit rainfall close to east KY!!! Too early yet but trending that way!

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