All Eyes On Hurricane Florence

Good Tuesday, folks. We have some October-like weather across the bluegrass state and that’s a good thing because it means we are actually dry for a change. How long this lasts depends a lot on what happens with Hurricane Florence. Right now, odds are for this system to impact our weather.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Highs today are in the upper 60s and low 70s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Clouds are gonna be stubborn in much of this region. Western Kentucky are mainly sunny with upper 70s to near 80.

Wednesday will find readings in the west hitting the low 80s, with upper 70s for the rest of the state. It continues to look dry.

Temps do hit the 80s area-wide Thursday and Friday with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, especially in the east.

Beyond this, it’s really up to Florence.

This powerful Hurricane continues to work toward the northwest and has a Thursday date with North Carolina. Here are the specifics from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

Here’s a look at the tracks from the various hurricane models…

The European Model continues to show a disaster for North Carolina…

The model then stalls Florence over the Carolinas, ala Harvey, bringing tremendous rains. By Sunday into early next week, the Euro then brings what’s left of Florence into Kentucky, producing heavy rains…

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that run…

The rainfall max on that run is right at 48″ in North Carolina. Wow!

The latest GFS continues to show a bit of a stall and loop before hitting North Carolina, then brings the remnants our way…

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that single run…

The Canadian also has a stall and loop before heading due west, with the remnants also moving into our region…

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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19 Responses to All Eyes On Hurricane Florence

  1. TennMark says:

    Thanks, Chris. Thoughts and prayers are with Mid-Atlantic residents as Hurricane Florence is looking more and more scary.

    As a side note, the Paducah office of the NWS has rated the recent tornado near Owensboro KY as an EF1 that traveled a little over two miles.

    As we know, this twister and the heavy rains/high water issues were courtesy in part by of the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon.

  2. Terry says:

    Yep☹….When there is a lot of model agreement and your rainfall forecast starts to look like an impressive snowfall in inches: Watch out!!!!!

  3. Schroeder says:

    I remember many many October days of clear blue skies, high temperatures in the sixties and beautiful Fall foliage. This picture I just painted with words is becoming very rare and it makes me sad that the younger people can’t enjoy the Autumns I had when growing up back in the 1950’s and 60’s. As far as Hurricane Florence goes a lot could change, hopefully for the better as this country does not need another flooding event ! #climatechange

    • bryan says:

      Funny, I seem to remember crisp October days last year and the year before and so on.

      Florence will be bad, so was Hurricane Hazel, which struck in October of 1954. Was that because of climate change. What about Hugo which hit the lowcountry of South Carolina in September of 1989. climate change?

      It’s tropical storm season. Quit being dramatic.

      • Troy says:

        It totally depends on where you live. In my area of the state, we haven’t had a true fall in years. Our transition is from summer straight to winter for the better part of a decade.

    • TennMark says:

      I recall many autumns which were sunny, cool, dry. Both as a kid and in more recent years. While October is on average the driest month of the year in much of both KY and TN, October is still very much tropical season so occasional systems can still drench our area. On the other side of the coin, it was just two years ago when there was too much dry sunny weather which led to the devastating autumn wild fires, especially at Gatlinburg TN.

      A few years ago, my then-fiancée and I purposely settled on a fall wedding as we desired at least some of our activities to be outside, yet she wanted no heat/humidity. Other than being a bit windy, we were blessed that our wedding day had great outdoor conditions…with beautiful autumn colors to boot.

  4. Dave says:

    Not seeing the Ky. connection at all on the NHC site this morning, thank goodness. Hitting the Carolinas and then heading north. Close call though!

  5. Nasdaq says:

    Latest Euro slams SE KY with up to 8 inches of rain

  6. Alison says:

    Prayers for all those in the line of fire, and also for Cape Hatteras, my favorite vacation spot.

  7. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Latest model runs are spitting out 8+ inches for southeastern Kentucky. Of course we are quite a few days away so things can change, but it is something to keep an eye on at this point.

  8. Rolo says:

    my thoughts cat 2-3 at landfall, then stalss as models show with it kicking in towards eastern tenn,ky with 2-6 inches rain heaviest far east. still A lot of varibles and time for changes. thnk cat 3 at landfall more likely.

  9. Rickie H says:

    Not to take away from the seriousness of the storm. I wonder what our winter will be like with such an active hurricane season. Does that usually set the stage?

  10. Schroeder says:

    With the tropics active. Let me rephrase that VERY ACTIVE we tend to have late Autumn’s and very late Winters. Maybe some parts of the state will receive a couple of heavy wet snowfalls in March or an ice storm. I base this on the past winters that followed active tropical events. If a weak El nino develops in December we may have better chances for snow throughout the upcoming Winter 2018-19. At the present we are locked in on ENSO- neutral phase.

    • bryan says:

      #climatechange, right?

      If only we had painted our roofs white and ceased from using drinking straws and Capri sun pouches.

      Here’s a more apt hashtag-#quitdrinkingtheKoolade

      • Troy says:

        Your use of the hashtag proves youre young enough to NOT remember the real winters and normal summers (84-85 were extremely hot days unlike the 90+ of the last decade) we used to get with regularity pre year 2000. Haven lived long enough to see the difference in change for myself, I will say climate change is definitely real…it may or may not be manmade but doesn’t change the fact that it is happening.

  11. Rolo says:

    Sad no update by Bailey, Rolo loves u but lately the other 2 local channels have beat WKYT coverage of severe storms and today
    What might hit far SE and eastern Ky.

  12. Cold-Rain says:

    looks like the latest Euro run stalls Florence just north of Wilmington for 24 hrs and then moves slowly SW before making landfall around the Charleston area..Bad for coastal areas but i guess inland would not get as much rain..Just a guess but thinking there won’t be much of Florence left when and if anything blows in here..

  13. Terry says:

    My poor ole, SOGGY KY home. Man, I know the models will fluctuate but it sure looks bad at this time! Double digit rainfall on the table? It is possible!

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