Updating The Florence Forecast

Good evening, folks. Hurricane Florence has weakened some today, but is still a major hurricane on a collision course with the Carolinas. The storm will likely have a direct impact on our weather late this weekend into early next week.

This storm has a chance at a double landfall… One south of Wilmington, NC, with the other in South Carolina. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast reflects this possibility…

cone graphic

The various hurricane models are in very good agreement with the forecast track of the storm into the Carolinas and then all the way into Kentucky by early next week…

The various members of the GFS Ensembles share a similar line of thinking…

The latest GFS is very similar to the tracks shown above, bringing rain and wind into Kentucky Sunday and Monday…

That clearly brings the remnant low right on top of the state.

The European Model has corrected itself from last night’s extreme solution that took this system south of Savannah. The model now shows the double landfall scenario. Here’s the North Carolina hit…

Followed by the South Carolina hit…

From there, the Euro takes this system across central and eastern Kentucky…


Some thoughts on how all this may play out:

  • Scattered showers and storms will go up over the next few days, with an increase Friday and Saturday. Tropical downpours will be possible.
  •  The remnants of Florence begin throwing clouds our way by late Saturday into early Sunday.
  • The first rains from this storm should arrive late Sunday and continue through Monday. Showers and storms will be common across central and eastern Kentucky. Heavy rainfall may cause a few issues.
  • Unlike Gordon, this will likely produce gusty winds across our part of the world.
  • None of this is set in stone. 🙂

I will have another update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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7 Responses to Updating The Florence Forecast

  1. Terry says:

    Are you going to update this as a “Threat” Chris? It looks possible for several inches of rain, especially in SE KY. But….time will tell!

  2. Larry says:

    Once this thing is out of here the weather is going to turn quite chilly shortly after.

  3. Virgil E. says:

    Now that they are forecasting this thing to not even be a major hurricane as it comes on shore, Maybe some namely those in the AP and other government officials should give some pause to how they have deliberately used words like unprecedented and such to instill fear into people.

  4. Garthe says:

    Looks to me this will mainly be a heavy rain maker for areas east of I-75. Not so much in the area of I-65 or points west. The trend has been clearly east. A good thing since we’ve had so much rain lately.

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