Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Saturday, folks. It’s a gorgeous weekend in the bluegrass state as we get ready to slam the door on the month of September. This nice weather won’t carry over into early October as the threat for showers and thunderstorms rolls back in.

Today starts in the upper 40s and low 50s for many and ends with upper 60s and low 70s for many. A mix of sun and clouds will fill the gap in between. Sunday’s weather will look a  lot like today, but our temps will rise several degrees.

Next week continues to look like a warm one with the threat for showers and thunderstorms increasing. The first system throws scattered storms at us on Monday, with an increase in storms by Tuesday…

The end of the week into next weekend will feature a greater threat for rain and thunderstorms as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This front has a lot of early October cold air behind it, but it’s going to try to check up on top of us. If that’s the case, waves of low pressure may develop along the front, putting us back into a very wet pattern.

The tropics may also come back to life during this time. The tropics bully the overall pattern and you can see some action showing up now…

I’m really impressed by the amount of cold showing up across North America so early in the fall season. This early season cold is laying down one heck of a snowpack for this time of year. Look at the snow for the next 2 weeks on the GFS…

Why is all that important? Because a healthy early season snowpack means the cold shots, when they come, will actually be COLD shots. If you want winter weather, the cold is an essential ingredient, obviously. While those shots haven’t been directly aimed at us, yet, they are impressive for the areas getting them. At some point, that cold hits us and may hit us pretty darn hard early on in the season.

Something else of note… The new long range European Ensembles through November 14. The new run expects much of the country to see flakes during that time period…

The control run of the European is also pretty excited…

The CFS for the fist 2 weeks of November also suggests a shot at early season flakes…

I actually think there is some merit to fall flakes this season. Several of my analog years featured November snows, including 2014. Hint hint. 😉

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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9 Responses to Looking Down The Weather Road

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Since it is almost October, this kind of talk is actually fun, though it’s only talk.

  2. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris. This morning you have given this want a be meteorologist a lot to study about what may happen this coming Autumn. I have been recently studying the surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic, especially the areas in the North Atlantic. It’s another fogy morning here in central Kentucky which I attribute to high pressure aloft which will likely give us a beautiful Autumn afternoon with plenty of sunshine.

    • Schroeder says:

      In the Autumn and winter of 2014-15 we were in an ENSO- weak El nino. That’s when we had snow in the eastern part of the state on the thirty-first of October. The heaviest snow fell in the higher mountain areas to our east. We our currently in an ENSO- El nino watch and we still are retaining ENSO- neutral phase. When the change takes place to a weak El nino phase maybe we will get into a more seasonal pattern and some big time snowstorms this coming winter season ?

  3. Terry says:

    The last KY needs is a cold front to stall and more tropical moisture. YIKES!!!

    It has looked like that may happen for days now though for next week….a double digit October rainfall?

  4. Faye says:

    Spring and fall are my two favorite seasons. I felt cheated out of spring this year and now it looks like we might get cheated out of fall too. I don’t mind some winter weather, just want it to come when it’s actually winter on the calendar.

    • Terry says:

      I think this is going to be an ‘ole school’ winter too! Early and tough☺

      • Troy says:

        Im “guessing”, colder than normal November with a few “festive flakes” followed by a much warmer than normal December, January, and February joined by yet more record breaking rain totals for each month. March will possibly hold some promise for an inch or two of snow for the southern third of the state while the northern 2/3 of the state is walloped a big snow. Ugh!!! So in other words, a replay of last winter for you and I Terry.

        • Terry says:

          My hope is that a weak to low end moderate El Nino developes keeping an active southern jet along the gulf coupled with a lot of blocking and merging of tge northern jet to steer more App Runners this upcoming winter.

          Let’s face it: Ohio Valley tracking winter storms do nothing for far SE KY. I don’t really consider us in the Ohio Valley as we are about too far SE of the river to have similar weather but some people still group us within the Ohio River Valley on a geographic regional basis.

          I think our weather is more similar to SW VA and East TN than other areas farther NW in KY….thoughts???

          • AC says:

            Weather doesn’t follow state lines.
            You’re closer to SW VA and TN than Louisville or Lexington, so you’re more likely to see weather similar to what the mountainous regions see.

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