A Warm and Stormy Start To October

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s a VERY warm start to the month of October and that warm air is bringing a few storms along for the ride. This warm and stormy setup is likely to carry us into week two of the month, before the pattern tries to flip in a big way. As all this is happening, we are watching to see what late season mischief the tropics can come up with.

A weak front is pushing into the Ohio Valley today and bringing a few showers and storms with it. A few of the storms may put down locally heavy rains…

Highs today are generally in the upper 70s to low 80s for most of the state.

Wednesday is a very warm and humid day with high temps hitting 80-85 for many. Isolated showers and storms will be possible.

Another front moves into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and will bring an increase in showers and storms. That front will only get so far into the region before it checks up. Watch how the storms fire up in the afternoon and evening…

A few of those storms may even be on the strong side.

Scattered showers and storms will be around this weekend into early next week. From there, what happens around here may largely depend on what happens in the tropics. Many of the models slowly bring the western trough toward the east, with something tropical trying to form in the Caribbean. Some of the runs from the new version of the GFS have this in the gulf and trying to head our way. The Canadian is now on that train…

It’s still very early in the game, but that’s an interesting scenario and one that’s more than plausible… Especially given we have already had 3 systems move across the state this season.

At some point, the cold weather damn will break and it will flood our region in a big way. The European Ensembles continues to show this late next week…

Even in a warmer and stormier setup, there is no shortage of exciting weather to track.

Have a great day and take care.

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10 Responses to A Warm and Stormy Start To October

  1. Mike S says:

    Now, now. If I spelled the “cold weather dam” the way you did I’d be in trouble. But, for some, cold air should be cursed for interrupting this extension of summer.

  2. Schroeder says:

    I don’t think that was a mistake ? It’s frustrating to see all that nice Fall weather lock up to our north.

  3. Schroeder says:

    The Ventusky wind and temperature site is showing a very fast moving jet stream across the Great Country of Canada where this is preventing fall weather from arriving in the Ohio Valley. We are currently under the influence of a large high pressure system off of the Atlantic. As this month of October ages and with the days getting shorter we may have Fall like weather by the end of the month ? But, it’s like Chris has been saying ” it’s up to what goes on in the tropics “

  4. Jeff Kidd says:

    I’m just here to see if the almighty Schroeder agrees with Chris or not and then I can relax.

    • Bryan says:

      I’ll give him this- fall weather does not seem probably for most of October. But every forecaster I follow has been tricked by the tropical season which looks to persist well into October

  5. BubbaG says:

    As the not so great Rodney King used to say…. sniffles: “Can’t we all just get along?”

  6. Schroeder says:

    Here’s the latest on the formation of ENSO- El Nino this coming Fall and Winter : ” ENSO-neutral is favored through October 2018, with El Nino favored thereafter. Chances for El Nino are 65-70 % during Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-19.” Now, if the Arctic Oscillation weakens and the westerlies decrease, all that cold Arctic air will come south into our region ? Also the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation would have to transfer over to negative phase. Something to look forward to if you like Winter from November through March. But there is a 30% chance this will not occur.

  7. SnowLover58 says:

    So when can we expect your winter weather outlook or prediction for this year? According to old farmers almanac its supposed to be snowy. But then again they say that every year don’t they. I hope they are right this year.

    • Schroeder says:

      Incorrect, the Farmers Almanac is calling for a very cold winter with lots of snow events, and the Old Farmers Almanac is calling for a warmer and wet Winter in the Ohio Valley and a colder snowy Winter only in Canada. These booklets are fun to read, but when it comes down to it, no one really knows what’s ahead this coming Fall and Winter. However, lately the Old Farmers Almanac has been correct.

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