Tracking A Major Pattern Change

Good Saturday, everyone. Our summertime pattern rolls on through the weekend, but this setup is about to change in a big way. A major pattern shift is about to take place next week and could bring us more rain from the tropics, followed by some real deal fall chill.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are steamy once again and we are likely tracking scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any boomer that blows up can put down heavy rains…

I continue to hone in on the setup for next week. It’s one that will feature a big fall cold front moving our way, potentially hooking up with a tropical system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the system of interest down in the Caribbean…

Where that system goes will, ultimately, be the deciding factor on how much rain we get for the middle and end of the week.

Let’s start by looking at a few of the hurricane model tracks…

The GFS Ensembles track forecast…

Keep in mind, we are early in the formation of this storm, so the models will shift around.

As far as the operational models are concerned, the Canadian is a likely too far west with the current track…

The new version of the GFS continues to be right on top of us…

The European hasn’t had a very good summer with figuring out where tropical systems are going. It is leaving the system meandering in the deep south while sending up a lot of tropical moisture into our region…

My initial thought is this system has a good chance of being drawn northward into our region, ahead of an approaching cold front…

That could give us another heavy rain event, which would be the 4th of the season from a tropical system. The timing of that front is key to exactly where that system winds up.

Much cooler air follows that up, with another system by the weekend delivering even colder air.

I will throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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21 Responses to Tracking A Major Pattern Change

  1. John-Austin says:

    Looks like a fun week of weather tracking!

  2. B H says:

    With it being so warm this early fall the cold will feel even colder when it gets here.

  3. Schroeder says:

    So weather forecasters are expecting the huge high pressure ridge to ” break down ” and move back into the southeast Atlantic and a tropical storm to form in the Caribbean and move almost due north into the Gulf of Mexico and into eastern Kentucky with areas of heavy rains by Wednesday in the Ohio Valley. A lot of changes would have to come about in the Atlantic and with the trough out in Pacific Northwest where they are enjoying a beautiful Autumn.

    • Terry says:

      Its going to happen….fall is coming☺

      • Schroeder says:

        Terry, Autumn is all ready here. The Autumn weather isn’t. Not the way I remember in the past. In the fall of 1964, I visited Nashville, Indiana on October tenth and the foliage was at peak that weekend. The foliage was on the ground by November first and our first snow happened before Thanksgiving. It has been several years since I’ve seen a very colorful Autumn.

  4. Terry says:

    I like Chris’s in the middle track for the tropical system: Bad news for KY but likely most accurate. GFS will likely correct more west as the front will not be far enough east yet to eject “Michael” through Carolinas. The Canadian could happen but the front would have to be much slower, weaker and isn’t the best run in my opinion.

    I take Chris’s scenario and KY floods again….I about would bet on it!

    • Jimbo says:

      I just hope the predicted cooler (normal) weather lasts more than a couple days. The few breaks we did get were in here and out after 2 days. I am pretty sure, we will have to suffer through more 80 degree days thru Christmas but I sure hope this front puts an end to the humidity.

      • Terry says:

        Yeah, SE KY about missed the brief cool spell last week. Harlan only reach upper 50s for a few nights at the very end of September and back in the mid 60s to around 70 ever since for lows. I saw northern KY had a few 40s briefely but still very hot afterwards. I have seen these highs before this late in the year but the lows are incredible…never seen the nights consistently this warm so late! The average low in Harlan is now upper 40s! My elephant ears and banana plants are huge now and enjoy the excess rain and heat but this weather dude wants cool☺

        Also, fall foilage is basically non-existent so far as most trees are still dark green down here. I don’t expect much pretty this year as too warm and wet too late in the year. Maybe, we will see a little late season color.

  5. Schroeder says:

    How can we acquire colder, more Fall like temperatures with the westerlies being so pronounced throughout Canada ? A huge long ridge would have to form and become stationary over the entire western US and western Canada. This scenario may happen sometime, but not likely anytime soon. It looks to me like our current weather pattern is set to stay for a while longer ?

  6. Schroeder says:

    I like to elaborate in detail on the current weather we may be experience at any given time and weather discussion is always welcome.

  7. Schroeder says:

    Do you all and that includes Chris hate my comments that much that you want me to quit posting on here ? I would really like to know why I get all the flack everyday on this blog. Is it my wording, is it my know it all. I don’t know it all, I’m learning meteorology from all of you and Chris. The last one and I hope it is not true is you don’t want me to post on here because I am a native from Indiana. I want you all to know that I earned my college degree from Murray State University back in 1974 with a degree in Agriculture and Horticulture and now I live in Kentucky out in the hills away from all with all the trees and quiet and beautiful nature. The end.

    • Bryan says:

      Let me check the boxes for you. Are you a know it all? Yea, pretty much.

      Is it your wording? Yea, that too.

      Because you’re from Indiana? Whatever

      You left one out. Are people annoyed that you love to troll Cb?
      Yes, definitely

  8. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Bryan for your honesty. I respect that. I have decided to study meteorology on my own and not on Chris Bailey’s blog. Many more weather sites exist out there that I can study on. I decided to delete this blog not because of Chris but it’s all the friction I attract and distract the others. It will be hard but I will soon forget. Good bye and good luck and I hope you all get all the snow you can handle this winter and winters to come.

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