A Frosty Cold Week Begins With Rain

Good Monday, everyone. Our new week is off and running on a very wet note with rounds of showers and a few storms targeting the Commonwealth. Frosty cold air will follow this action into the middle of the week, with a little more interesting look taking shape by the weekend.

I’ve also got a couple of season models that show an interesting setup for the upcoming winter. We will get to that in a bit, but let’s begin with where we are now.

A boundary is stalled across the state, with a wave of low pressure running along it. This is bringing locally heavy rains our way. We are also seeing a big temperate gradient with the southeast being much warmer than everyone else. Here are your tracking toys for the day…

Chilly surges in behind the rain as it moves out later tonight and early Tuesday morning as temps drop deep into the 30s for areas where skies clear…

Mid and upper 30s show back up on Wednesday, but Thursday morning may bring a killing frost or light freeze our way. Readings could hit the freezing mark or a little below…

From there, it’s all eyes on another big blast of cold moving in for the weekend and early next week. This may be introduced by a potent storm system working across the region Friday and Saturday…

That’s a lot of cold coming in behind that system and it may be enough to produce some Ohio Valley snowflakes. Temps may head deep into the 20s for lows.

I’m continuing to point toward the final week of October for the first storm signal of the cold season showing up across the eastern half of the country. Some of the medium range models are beginning to sniff something out…

Winter is fast approaching and I’ve been busy doing my annual homework for the winter forecast. I also like to check out the seasonal models to see what they are saying. The Japanese Model has had a good run this year, so It certainly has a hot hand.

The new seasonal run for December through February shows a lot of blocking in areas where you want to see it for cold weather in our region. Check out the deep trough it has across much of the country for the winter…

That’s showing 500mb height anomalies and not temp anomalies.

The UKMET seasonal model does things a little differently. It breaks things down by percentages. It has a low chance for above normal temps, with a much greater chance for below normal temps…

Given those percentages, you can see how the model anticipates a setup similar to what the Japanese is showing. If those are right… Giddy up!

I may throw you another update later today. Until then, make it a great Monday and take care.

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31 Responses to A Frosty Cold Week Begins With Rain

  1. Stormtracker_WV says:

    Thanks for the long-term winter forecast, Chris! We’ve had such a hot summer that I thought for sure we would have a mild winter, but it’s not surprising for it to swing to a particularly cold one either. As you have mentioned before, we’re experiencing wild extremes more and more (enhanced by global warming, perhaps?) It will be interesting for sure! Thanks for all you do and for keeping all of us weather weanies in the know! 🙂

    • BF says:

      Climatologists say that as the Arctic region warms it causes the polar vortex to become weaker which allows the extreme cold to come down to the US. So if the climate is warming then we should expect more extreme cold in the winters if that theory is correct.

      • Schroeder says:

        Only if the Arctic

        Only if the Arctic Oscillation is in the negative phase along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the westerlies across Canada subside.


  2. Coreyfromtheky says:

    I’ve got a hunch that this is gonna be a very fun winter for tracking storms

  3. Schroeder says:

    I checked the surface sea temperatures back in the Autumn of 1969-70 and in 1976-77 and 1977-78 to make a comparison with the surface sea temperatures this year. The findings are that the temperatures were considerably cooler than they are at present. This explains just about everything on what’s going on now with the weather. Why the oceans are warming could be a natural cycle due to solar activity from years ago that has finally came to a climax. Climate change events are happening. We just had one and it’s called Hurricane Michael. As far as predicting this coming Autumn and Winter with “computer models ” is okay, if that is the way the meteorologist was educated.

    • Bryant says:

      Maybe Chris should confer with you before issuing any Fall or Winter forecasts, since you are more knowledgeable.

      Your forecast of dry weather and 80’s for the long term was really spot on, wasn’t it?

      Thanks for the climate change lesson. Hurricanes have hit in October before. Remember Hazel? Or was that *not* related to climate change

    • Prelude says:

      There you go again Schroeder you just literally don’t know when to stop. It’s like you have diarrhea of the mouth. There is not a legit meteorologist out there that wants to here that there forecast is solely computer model driven. A computer model is just a tool for meteorologist to help with a forecast. There is a whole lot more than just computer models that meteorologist use to come up with a forecast.

  4. Lotsasnow says:

    Can we have a vote to kick Schroeder out?

    • Schroeder says:

      Only Chris can, it’s not anyone on the comment section. I suggest you contact him about your problem. Remember the first amendment to the constitution.

    • Bryant says:

      No, we need Schroeder’s in depth look at sea temperatures, upper level wind patterns to refute everything Chris forecasts.

      Schroeder knows more about weather than any of us, including Chris.

  5. Schroeder says:

    I wish we could gets some intelligent meteorological comments on this forum. It’s getting very tiresome to read all the simple uneducated remarks on my character. I have the right to my opinion along with everyone else on here whether it’s right or wrong. That’s why I like talking about the weather there isn’t any right or wrong about it. Enjoy the rainy afternoon.

    • B H says:

      Hang in there Schroder you do have a right to your opinion. Let it rain.

    • Bryant says:

      ” As far as predicting this coming Autumn and Winter with “computer models ” is okay, if that is the way the meteorologist was educated.”

      Maybe you should get with Chris and instruct him how to issue a long range forecast, since you’re far more educated and experienced.

      • Schroeder says:

        You keep repeating yourself, give it a rest.

        • Bryan says:

          Move on, troll.

          • Jeff Kidd says:

            Schroeder you have yet to answer about your prediction of the cooler weather not arriving and us staying dry and in the 80’s. Or do you not want to admit you aren’t as smart as the online character you have created truly are? Do you think Chris is honestly not using every tool at his disposal when he says cooler weather is coming? People on here and myself included give you a hard time because you honestly act like you know more than everyone and Chris. You say you come here to learn, but all you do is preach climate change and have a know it all attitude. What exactly have you learned on here since all you do is preach? These 80’s sure do feel great by the way!!!

  6. Nick says:

    What was shroeders prediction as of now that we would b warm and in the 80s still?

  7. Nick says:

    Ive been reading chris’s weather post for a solid 5 yrs now and i can say most of the time he calls it how it is hes not always right but hes pretty darn close but lately hes been spot on, ive been researching and studying weather for a long long time and anyone that thinks they know exactly what will happen is delusional it is a forecast a educated guess and as models go you look for consistency and most of them right now show a colder 1-3 east how that pans out is yet to be seen and if it will b dry or warm, this being a weak el nino isn’t the same as the one recently and no givin yrs are the same, aa goes for Schroeder you can be negative sometime u do have a right to speak your mind maybe ur hopee of a blowout winter has jaded u but in West cincy 13-14 and 14-15 was huge yrs here and ky has bern hit the last several

  8. Nick says:

    As he says we arw living in strange weather times so buckle up

  9. Wilson says:

    It’s honestly funny to come on here and read people who actually enjoy trolling/arguing with people on a weather blog comment section

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