Good Wednesday, everyone. Another weak front is crossing the state today, bringing even colder air from the northwest. This will give us our first widespread frost of the season into Thursday morning, with even colder air lurking for later this weekend and next week.
We will break all that down and take a look at the next 6 weeks worth of interesting weather on the long range European Model.
Before we get to all that, let’s talk about the fall chill that’s in the air. A weak cold front is dropping in from the north today and is bringing even colder temps with it. Readings by Thursday morning will drop to the freezing mark in many areas, with a few spots going below 32 degrees. That means frost is likely…
Frost may be with us again Friday morning…
By Friday afternoon and evening, another rain maker moves into the region from the southwest. This will keep rains going into, at least, the first part of Saturday. Some wraparound moisture may come into parts of the state Saturday night…
A few snowflakes may get awfully close to the bluegrass state with the northwest flow. That should bring even colder air in here for Sunday and Monday with freezing temps a good bet.
I continue to point toward the final week of October for the potential for a big amplification across the eastern part of the country. The Ensembles have been suggesting this for a while and the operational models are starting to catch on…
The longer range European Ensembles are out and take us from now through November 29th. The model shows a colder than normal pattern during this time, but it keeps our region in a very active pattern. That would mean a lot more rain and increasing snow chances.
Ensembles rainfall…
Control run…
Ensembles snow…
The control run builds an early season glacier…
Obviously, we take any of those models with a grain of salt, but the overall setup makes sense. Our current pattern is now colder than normal and wetter than normal and that’s exactly what the model is showing. How much of that equates to snow across the country remains to be seen. But, snow cover across Canada is way above normal right now and that’s usually a harbinger of a colder and snowier winter in our part of the world.
Have a great day and take care.
I know you all are probably tired of hearing me squawk over the year-to-date precipitation, but Harlan (Black Mt. Location) topped the 70 inch mark yesterday!!! McCreary, Madison and Rowan topped 60 inch mark with numerous county locals set to hit 60 soon. WOW….so between 5 to 10 more inches of rain on the ensembles through only late November during the normally dry part of the year is absolutely insane☺
My total on Harlan county is much lower but I live on the valley over 20 miles from the Black Mt. Mesonet and only have 55.24 year-to-date. Now, the pattern looks delicious for at least early season snow too which has happened but not too common before Thanksgiving…let us send out invites to the “blocking party.”
Ignore the phone typos and here are the mesonet totals through yesterday:
http://www.kymesonet.org/summaries.html
It never goes directly to the year-to-date totals, so you will have to navigate on the summary screen under yearly data precipitation, then accumlative to see the data so far through 2018.
Just curious about the leaf changing?? I’m near Bristol Tn and we have had no changing of the leaves. Very strange, by this time of year we already have a lot of color. Even the high elevations have none but I’m sure with temps dropping into the 30’s it will change in a hurry now.
So after the showers Saturday we’re done with rain until October 29th? That would be the longest dry stretch we’ve had all year.
Would be nice for a change but with the weather we’ve had this year, I’d say there is zero chance that will hold true.
Here’s a crazy stat:
of the top wettest years in Lexington since record keeping, half of them have occurred since 2004.
2004
2011
2013
2015
2018
Now— 2018 is not officially in the top ten yet, but it’s so close at this point to be in the top ten, you might as well count it since there are over 2 months left.
Thanks Chris. Looks like it’s tome to switch this closets from summer to winter. While I love fall and winter weather, I don’t care for the electric bills and the shorter days. That being said, I do love the holiday season and hopefully a good snow. So I guess there are perks too. ;). Have a great Wednesday everyone.
With the way the weather account is set up, I believe we are going to stay in the 80s for the foreseeable future….climate change people!!!! The Atlantic oscillation has to match up with the Bermuda triangle for true colder weather to endure…I’m here to have educated conversation people! I’m not a troll, they live under bridges…not in kentucky… #sarcasm #imnotSchroeder #jk
Hilarious!!!
GO TO HELL !!!!!
My late Father was Schroeder Jr. and I don’t appreciate the STUPID remarks you just made Jeff Kidd. I can take a joke but this is definitely going too far.
6 inches of rain for most of KY from now to Nov. 29? Did I see that correctly?
Y’all certainly don’t need that right now.
It seems that most of the models in the past few months have gone somewhat overboard on the precipitation in KY and WV too.
It seems like the rainfall has been rather localized in KY and most home state of WV as well, but KY especially.
However, there have been some instances where precipitation has been greatly underestimated as well.
You just never know what will happen in localized weather events like we’ve had the past decade or so, making already difficult forecasts even more complex.
A few places in KY are actually below normal in yearly precipitation believe it or not (at least I think I have observed that), while most other areas are way above normal, some exceedingly so. It seems like the spread has gotten wider over the years, that rainfall is much more localized than it used to be, with the difference between the “haves” and “have nots” increasing over the years, especially during the 2000s.
I don’t know if that’s really the case or not, or just me, but it seems like that’s the way it’s been according to my own personal observations.
NAO is supposed to go negative also towards the end of the month..Interesting..