Watching A Weekend System

Good Thursday, everyone. Frost is on some of the pumpkins to begin the day as our November pattern continues here in the middle of October. This setup keeps colder than normal numbers going through rest of the month, with the potential for a big late month system.

Let me begin by saying the blog is undergoing work, with upgrades in progress. That means things may be a little out of whack, so just bear with me. 🙂

Temps out there today are mainly low and middle 50s with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures tonight will be back into the frosty low and middle 30s before a few clouds roll in.

Those clouds are ahead of a system moving in later Friday into Saturday. That brings rain back into our region with a blast of cold air to follow.

That rain rolls in here from west to east and takes us into early Saturday. Much colder air moves in behind it for later Saturday into Sunday. That may bring around some wraparound moisture in here. The NAM is even showing northern and eastern Kentucky on the border of something else…

The best chance for flakes will be across the northern Ohio Valley and in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures by Sunday morning will drop into the upper 20s and low 30s as skies clear.

The weather into the first half of the week looks really pleasant with the numbers still a little below normal.

I continue to beat the drum for a major amplification of the jet stream for the final week of October This type of setup is pretty wild…

That can create a big time, slow-moving storm system.

The European Ensembles are also locked in on this deep trough…

Euro1

I will hook you up with another update later today, so check back. Until then, Have a great Thursday and take care.


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51 Responses to Watching A Weekend System

  1. Terry says:

    We still have a few hours to go, but only made it into the 40s in Harlan. Dewpoints are too high for any major frost in far SE KY this morning. It may be colder tonight though.

    Halloween week looks very exciting. NAO and AO may both be negative by then which would likely affect our weather, especially more into November. Exciting times ahead?!

    • Prelude says:

      Yeah that widespread frost was a swing and a miss.

      • Prelude says:

        I’ll give credit where credit is due to the NWS. NWS forecast discussion yesterday morning and afternoon about the potential for widespread frost this morning having bust potential.

    • Andy Rose says:

      I actually hit 38.7 for a low at about 5:30

    • Bryant says:

      I’m good with frost and freezes holding off until late month. Sub freezing nights this early is a bad thing for any hope of a nice fall foliage season. More than anything, we just need a stretch of very cool nights and sunny afternoons. Still looks like a good 2 weeks before we are at peak or close.

  2. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Frost was a no go in Monticello as well, only close to 40 this morning.

  3. Schroeder says:

    We actually had our first good frost last week here in Taylor County. But we live in the remote hills and dales away from asphalt and the heat domes of the cities. Right now it’s 40 degrees but there is a thin layer of Stratus Clouds which would impede the development of frost. You all know this when you have low dew points and clear skies and calm conditions in October you will have frost. It’s called radiational cooling.

  4. Schroeder says:

    At my place the trees and the forest around our home are beginning to show their most awaited colors. It’s late for sure for my elevation but maybe for the cooler weather forecasted the colors will last longer into November ?

  5. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for your continuing information. On your blog this morning and past blogs of recent you keep mentioning a major amplification of the jet stream for latter in October and into November. Are you expecting that the weather model showing winter type weather is going to occur just based on that one model ?

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      You should know Schroeder since you’re keeping an eye on the upper level winds and ocean temps for Chris. I hope you are keeping him up to date. Also thanks for the definition of radiational cooling since none of us weather simpletons know what that is. These 80’s sure feel great that you predicted Schroeder!!!

      • Schroeder says:

        I forget more than you would ever know about Meteorology.

        • Jeff Kidd says:

          I’m glad you can tell me how much I know about the weather. You sure were correct about the 80’s and dry pattern we are in. Your weather knowledge was really showing there and you were so smart to predict that since no else predicted it. It just shows how much you know about weather!!

          • Schroeder says:

            I don’t remember forecasting eighties in October ? However the rains are beginning to become less widespread which is to be expected in the next five months. With the surface sea temperatures warmer than they were forty years ago I don’t expect a very cold winter. Easy on the old pocket book.

            • Prelude says:

              Schroeder you’re right about not remembering forecasting 80 degree temperatures deep in October. Why? Because the word forecasting and Schroeder should never ever be in the same sentence, EVER! However I do remember you “saying” the 80 degree temperatures will be around deep into October. Something to do with winds and sea temperatures and whatever bunch of bologna you can come up with. What I find fascinating is Schroeder can remember 20 to 30 years ago but cannot remember a week or two back, hmmmmm…. I believe that is called selective memory.

          • Bryant says:

            That’s because Schroeder is a National Weather service guy.

            • Jeff Kidd says:

              Schroeder you definitely have forgotten a lot, the one thing you are right about. Back when Chris was predicting a pattern flip you stated that the upper level winds were not going to slow down to allow a trough over the area and you said the same pattern we were in at the time would persist for the foreseeable future. At the time we were still in the 80’s and dry. Now did you forget you said this or is this you being your usual know it all self and never admitting you were wrong?

              • Schroeder says:

                Just to satisfy you I was wrong. Now please end the put downs.

              • leah says:

                bullies! Grow adults being cyber bullies wow!

                • weatherweenie says:

                  I agree with you Leah! Jeff Kidd, Bryant and Prelude are the rudest commenters. Shroeder obviously knows a lot about the weather and he is just sharing his thoughts. I actually like to read what he has to say. Just because you don’t doesn’t mean you need to comment about it. I actually don’t like reading anything you all have to say anymore you are just so rude. I am a regular reader of this blog and if you don’t like what he is writing…..move along. GROW UP

                  Shroeder keep commenting all you want. Some of us are ADULTS and appreciate what you have to say.

  6. Schroeder says:

    I don’t think there has been a year without Indian Summer. It will be late this year because I don’t expect our really hard freeze will occur until later next month. So Indian Summer may not occur until December ?

  7. drew says:

    Schroeder is an idiot.

    • Schroeder says:

      I am not an idiot. I just can’t stand the humiliation I have to endure every time I post weather findings on Chris’s blog. For once I wish I had someone to discuss weather events on Chris’s blog instead of all the put downs. Remember this is just a weather blog and there isn’t anyone wrong or right when it comes to forecasting the weather.

      • MB says:

        Schroder, I’m here to discuss weather with you. I was wondering what you thought about how Sunny it is today? Is that due to global warming or do you think it has something to do with the oceanic temperatures due to global warming?

      • Prelude says:

        So what you are saying Schroeder is that you or anyone can do CB’s or any meteorologist job because there’s no wrongs or rights when it comes to forecasting the weather? So if someone forecast a high of 90 degrees today in Nome Alaska that forecast would be completely inaccurate that’s perfectly ok because there’s no wrong or right when forecasting weather?

  8. Mike S says:

    Highest pressure reading for any month of October since October 18, 2015. Last hour, Louisville Int’l recorded a barometric pressure reading of 30.55″ and still rising.

  9. leah says:

    bullies to its finest!

    • Prelude says:

      Smh, you speak of things of what you do not know when it comes to Schroeder.

      • Prelude says:

        There is a fine line between bullying and one person upsetting the blog on a constant level. Schroeder constantly contradicts and trolls the blog and others are now sick of it. This backlash is 100% on Schroeder he created this nobody else. Lots of people post on here and there are never issues or very rarely but when Schroeder posts he like to stir things up. Then Schroeder plays the victim card. Then says he’s leaving the blog which never happens. Schroeder has been contradicting and trolling for a long time some people overlook him and others have had enough of him. CB has warned him on a few occasions, CB has been more than patient with Schroeder and continues to do so. So there is your background nobody is bullying there just sick and tired of his contradictions and other bloggers are just speaking out. This is the same Schroeder that has said in past posts ”What makes Chris Bailey right?”

  10. winter lover says:

    It be interesting what will happen the final week of October in what Chris is talking about. That is if it plays out. Have a good crisp fall day!!!

  11. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Listen, I don’t care if Schroeder gives his opinions about the weather….that isn’t what bothers me…tbh I think he does have fairly good knowledge, but what does her under my skin is that he always seems to contradict what Chris is saying…if Chris says its gonna get cold in the next week, Schroeder will say the complete opposite…if I’m not mistake, Chris is a highly respected meteorologist and Schroeder is a guy who sits behind a computer screen and pays to look at weather models…I’m all for discussing weather, we all love it, but go about it a different way Schroeder or just start your own weather blog…stop with the contradicting and be appreciative that we have a great weather man who takes time out of his personal life to give us this blog

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      I couldn’t have said it any better Corey,

      He Schroeder says he’s here to learn, but all he does is say the exact opposite of Chris and earlier in the week he said he probably knew more than Chris simply because he’s older. That plus his condescending attitude is what gets under my skin as well.

      • Bryant says:

        Connect the dots. Schroeder started appearing after Chris was critical of the Louisville NWS for their inconsistent temperature recording at the airport in Lexington, and other issues.

        Maybe I’m chasing a conspiracy, but I’ve always felt that ole Schroeder was connected to the NWS.

  12. Mike S says:

    Another winter weather outlook…this one from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for Dec-Feb.
    http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us

    I was surprised there were no favored areas for below normal temperatures, especially for the South region where precipitation is expected to be above normal. I was equally surprised by the more than 2/3rds of the country being favored for above normal temperatures. Sounds like typical El Nino bias.

  13. Schroeder says:

    It’s the surface sea temperatures of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific being warmer than they have been in the past is what’s giving us equal chances for whatever might happen this winter is just a guess. As far as ENSO El Nino developing is still a no show. Until then it’s in the neutral phase. In other words nothing has changed in a dramatic way, except the Earth’s tilt.

  14. winter lover says:

    I don’t take to much stock what NOAA says.

  15. Schroeder says:

    This all happened lots of times where the ocean’s surface sea temperatures were warmer late into Fall. I experience this back in 1965 to 1967. And I remember meteorologist discussing this on a black and white TV news cast at 6:30 PM CDT. Those years we had warm winters and mostly dry. When the Oceans cooled off in September 1969-70, we had winter in December, January, February with plenty of snow and cold and even a White Christmas and a White New Years Day 1970. If you don’t believe me look it up. ” The Winter of 1969-70 “

  16. Schroeder says:

    Last time I checked it’s okay to agree to disagree.

  17. Schroeder says:

    Wow Chris, you got a lot of comments today. It’s sad to see that most of the comments are not what you were discussing on your blog. I admit that I got off on the wrong foot when I first started here back a couple of years ago when I was trying to discuss El Nino. I’m from a different state and a very different time period. The commentators on here I find very offensive and call me names like troll and idiot and tell me constantly I disrupt the forum instead of discussing the issues of meteorology which is what this forum is about. Right ? No I don’t plan to quit posting on here unless you decide otherwise. Have a great afternoon.

    • weatherweenie says:

      Keep posting. Whether I agree with what you say or not, I appreciate your posts. These other “men” are acting like fools.

      • Prelude says:

        So weatherweenie when CB warned Schroeder before to knock it off with his trolling ways does that mean CB is a fool to? Just curious

  18. Schroeder says:

    NOAA really needs to up date the progress of ENSO. I take all of this with a huge grain of salt.

  19. Ashlie.LOU says:

    My Poblano and Jalapeno pepper plants have been amazing this season! We picked the last peppers yesterday. Can’t believe our garden here (LOU) was still producing here in the middle of October. I loved the summer, but am ready for cold and snow!

    • Debbie says:

      My 2 Ghost Pepper’s, 3 Cayenne’ & Jalapeno’s are ON FIRE (literally & figuratively!) even now, too. I even had a stray cucumber that started growing and producing nicely a couple weeks ago and still looks good, though I picked the two small cukes off it yesterday w/ the threat of frost. And two stray tomato plants that got going and blooming, as well, which sadly, won’t have the chance to produce fruit. 🙁

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