Mr. Freeze Pays A Visit

Good Sunday, everyone. Our old friend Mr. Freeze is back in the bluegrass state for the next couple of mornings. Many areas have already experienced a light freeze, but this one will pretty much finish off the growing season. As we look ahead, a very active pattern is evolving for the final week of October.

Our Sunday is starting with a freeze in many areas of Kentucky. The rest of the day looks really good, but cold. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s with almost full sun. Lows by Monday morning are back into the upper 20s and low 30s for many, bringing another freeze.

The first half of the week ahead looks really, really good! Frosty cold mornings will be followed by cool and dry afternoons. All of this as the fall colors begin to finally take off.

The setup for the final week of October is one  that will feature a major amplification in our jet stream.

This allows for big storm systems to develop, with potential impacts from each system really hard to determine from a week or so out.

The latest seasonal run of the European Model has a similar winter look as some of the other seasonal runs I’ve been sharing with you over the past few weeks.

We are looking at the average 500mb monthly anomalies on the maps below and they show a clear deep trough in the east and ridge in the west…

November has a weak trough developing in the east…

December goes bonkers with the trough…

That would certainly make for a very cold and, likely, snowy run up to Christmas.

The trough isn’t as deep in January, but it’s still there…

It snaps back in a big way for February…

And it continues into March…

If it pans out, that would certainly be one heck of a winter for much of the country!

I will be talking more about winter in the week ahead, including showing some of the driving forces I’m finding.

Have a great Sunday and take care.


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19 Responses to Mr. Freeze Pays A Visit

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I hope that pans out! 😉

  2. MarkLex says:

    You know….we always think of the month of January as the worst of winter….but I feel like the past years this hasn’t been the case. It’s like Dec is on, January is off, and Feb and sometimes March are ON again.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Looking forward to viewing the Autumn colors by the end of the week. Temperature at my back porch is now at thirty two degrees, so any sunny, mild days this upcoming week would be ” Indian Summer.” Don’t know what to think about the winter ahead. The surface sea temperatures, the chances for the development of ENSO and all of the computer models have me confused.

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder, definition of a Indian Summer is an extended period of above normal temperatures and dry conditions. That’s not happening this week.

      • Schroeder says:

        Your idea of Indian Summer and mine differ and that’s okay. If you want to debate this please continue. I would enjoy it. I must confess that I could write volumes on the subject of any weather event. But, today I don’t feel like disrupting Chris’s forum with my weather rhetoric and yours. Lets give other folks a chance to express their comments. Okay Troll

        • Prelude says:

          That’s the true definition of a Indian Summer rather you like it or not, not some made up Schroeder version.

        • Mike says:

          Schroeder, your comments are interesting but if we post too much or too often folks get worn out. They want a mix of thoughts, idea, reflections and opinions. If one dominates or over uses a forum such as this it can turn some people off and annoy them.

          • Schroeder says:

            Mike: I know I have a problem posting too much. But I just love talking about the weather. My family gets annoyed because I am such a long talker. I actually have had five hour phone conversation.

  4. feederband says:

    Wind took off my furnace cap yesterday evening. I heard the loud thump when it hit the deck. Unusual for my home because we are on the downslope of a hill in my neighborhood. T-storm winds blow right over our house routinely.

  5. John-Austin says:

    That looks very promising Chris for this upcoming winter! Oh how I hope it turns out that way!

  6. Terry says:

    I am sending out invites to the ‘blocking party.’ Both NAO and AO are going negative and may reach -2 by early November! This is a strong signal for early season arctic air being pushed south and the jet stream to get ‘blocked along the east coast.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

    • Schroeder says:

      Looking at that site Terry, NOAA is presenting a forecast for a period of very below normal temperatures for early November. Now if we have a very negative charge on the AO and NAO and add a positive charge on the subtropical jet (ENSO) we could have a possible snow event somewhere in the Ohio Valley or an ice event ? Way too early to tell if ENSO will develop at the end of October.

      • Schroeder says:

        Adding to the above, the polar jet (-) and the subtropical jet (+) could combine along the mid Atlantic and develop a Nor’Easter and leave the Ohio Valley in cold wasted Arctic air. This scenario has happened many times in recent years.

  7. Mike S says:

    Looks like a preview of CB’s winter forecast, dominated by troughs

  8. I live hopkinsville ky which like winter Outlook cold and snowy

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