Tracking A Potential Big Storm System

Good Monday to one and all. Since our pattern flipped on a dime almost 2 weeks ago, temperatures have been running much colder than normal. That pattern shows little sign of breaking as we head into another cold week. Things do get busy by the weekend as that major amplification of the jet stream takes place. You know… That thing I’ve been pointing toward for well over a week now. 😉

Before we get to the weekend setup, let’s talk about the chill that leads us into that. Temps stay solidly below normal the next few days, then another  cold shot moves in for the middle of the week…

For more than a week now, I’ve been trying to drive home the fact I was picking up on a healthy signal for a major amplification to the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. Well that setup is on the way and it’s going to develop a big storm system.

What’s upping the ante on this setup is the likelihood of another Pacific hurricane getting into the mix. Powerful Hurricane Willa will come ashore along the Mexico border on Tuesday, then rapidly head toward Texas…

cone graphic

That energy will then merge with additional energy diving in from the northwest.  How much phasing and the timing of these phases remains to be seen, but some wild weather is on the table for the eastern part of the country. The Canadian has the wildest solution at the moment. Watch this fully phased upper level system on the current run…

That produces a MONSTER winter storm…

Though it does keep the winter weather mainly north and east of us… Wow.

The European Model isn’t quite as extreme, but it’s close. It shows the eastern winter storm, but isn’t as phased as the Canadian…

Taken verbatim, both the Canadian and European Models are show a crushing early seasons snowstorm from the Appalachian mountains to our east into the northeastern states.

As far as the GFS is concerned, the model bias is to ALWAYS be too far south and east with cold season storms. That’s what’s happening with the latest run, but if you correct it west, you get something similar to the Euro and Canadian…

For Kentucky, this setup likely produces rain, wind and cold. Can we get a little something more out of that setup? Perhaps. It’s all about the phasing.

I will have an update or two coming later today, so check back.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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7 Responses to Tracking A Potential Big Storm System

  1. TennMark says:

    The 2018 KenTenn Weather Workshop is coming up. A joint effort by NWS Louisville, NWS Paducah and NWS Nashville, this workshop will have quite a variety of topics like derechos, tornadoes, winter weather, meteorology in the military among other subjects. It’s Saturday November 3 in Hopkinsville KY. Best of all, it’s free 😉 , even if one needs to register.

    For further details…

  2. bgbecky says:

    so are we looking out a washout of a weekend, Chris? Or when are we expecting this rain?? Last BIG baseball tournament in Owensboro next weekend!! Hoping we get to play..and not in a monsoon lol

  3. Schroeder says:

    Chris, I find the upcoming weather event involving the Pacific Hurricane Willa interesting. I don’t recall at any time in my 67 years that a Pacific Hurricane will phased with the Polar jet to create a major winter type storm. This one will be an exciting system to track for sure. Maybe we will have a white Halloween somewhere in the mountains or along the east coast ? In Evansville, Indiana in the early 1990’s I recorded 4 inches of wet snow on 30, October. Earliest snowfall I ever experience. Come on folks start the comments this is interesting meteorology Chris has given us.

  4. Schroeder says:

    As of three hours ago Hurricane Willa remnants is forecast to merge with a low pressure system somewhere off the southeast coast and ride up the east coast as a potent ” Nor’easter ” We will have to wait to see if the path changes back to the west ?

    • Debbie says:

      Hi, Schroeder!
      You said something to this effect yesterday on your 12:17 post about perhaps a Nor’Easter “snow event”. I was kind of looking at the same. I’ve been thinking that we MAY see some “flurries” here in North Central KY before the end of the month, as well. I just got in from mowing my yard(hopefully for the last time this year!) and I noted how cool and moist the air was. I’ve only noticed this a couple times in years past…’93 and, (I could be wrong…??) since 2009?

  5. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Debbie, But, Chris has mention this weather system a few weeks back about a major change in the overall weather pattern at the end of October. I just elaborated on his findings and speculations. Yes, I think it was 1993 when we had that 4 inches of snow on October 30. A white Halloween that year. Very rare for that time of the year in the Ohio Valley.

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