Latest Thoughts On The Big Storm Ahead

Good evening, folks. Our monster of a storm continues to take shape for Halloween through Friday. This is a storm that can bring significant flooding issues, high winds and strong to severe storms. Overall, this continues to look like one heck of a storm.

My thoughts since have pretty much been the same since the middle of last week and I really see no reasons to change anything. I’m very concerned about the flood and flash flood potential as significant rains fall. This still looks like a general 1″-4″ rain, with local amounts up to 6″ possible. That would be more than enough to cause flash flooding and general flooding.

My at risk area hasn’t changed…

Low pressure is likely to develop and roll form south to north across the state, deepening along the way. That deepening may produce high winds and a few strong or severe storms. Winds gusts of 40mph will be possible on Halloween, with gusts of 50mph or greater possible Thursday into Thursday night. That’s when the actual low passes through.

Along and ahead of the track of that low, a few severe storms may develop.

The European Model has a potent storm strengthening right on top of Kentucky…

That track would bring a ton of rain, high winds and a few strong storms to the region. The rain forecast from the Euro is a little tighter with the gradient…

The GFS is very similar, but a little farther east…

The wind threat continues to increase. Gusts on Halloween are greater than 40mph on the European…

The Euro then takes winds to 50mph or greater in some areas Thursday into Thursday night…


Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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2 Responses to Latest Thoughts On The Big Storm Ahead

  1. Terry says:

    Well I hope this isn’t the future winter storm track. It basically will not rain in SE KY based upon the models which would be terrible in winter as western and central KY would get clobbered with snow but nothing down this way☹. Glad this is a rain only event with no wish casting needed for SE KY☺

  2. Cold-Rain says:

    Euro has a bias of over doing wind..We shall see..Do not worry terry..We will be in the sweet spot when blocking takes hold and pushes systems more south East..Big winter ahead for South East Ky..

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