Good evening, folks. Our monster of a storm continues to take shape for Halloween through Friday. This is a storm that can bring significant flooding issues, high winds and strong to severe storms. Overall, this continues to look like one heck of a storm.

My thoughts since have pretty much been the same since the middle of last week and I really see no reasons to change anything. I’m very concerned about the flood and flash flood potential as significant rains fall. This still looks like a general 1″-4″ rain, with local amounts up to 6″ possible. That would be more than enough to cause flash flooding and general flooding.

My at risk area hasn’t changed…

Low pressure is likely to develop and roll form south to north across the state, deepening along the way. That deepening may produce high winds and a few strong or severe storms. Winds gusts of 40mph will be possible on Halloween, with gusts of 50mph or greater possible Thursday into Thursday night. That’s when the actual low passes through.

Along and ahead of the track of that low, a few severe storms may develop.

The European Model has a potent storm strengthening right on top of Kentucky…

That track would bring a ton of rain, high winds and a few strong storms to the region. The rain forecast from the Euro is a little tighter with the gradient…

The GFS is very similar, but a little farther east…

The wind threat continues to increase. Gusts on Halloween are greater than 40mph on the European…

The Euro then takes winds to 50mph or greater in some areas Thursday into Thursday night…

Yowza!!

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.