High Winds and Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Tuesday, folks. Windy weather is moving in today and that’s a sign of things to come. A big storm system rolls into the region on Halloween and will carry us through the first day or two of November. Some wicked weather will accompany this bad boy into town

Let’s begin with today and the trick-or-treating forecast for those cities and towns that moved it up a day because of the weather. Things look mild and windy, but dry. Highs today may close in on 70 for some areas, but winds will really pick up by the evening. Gusts of 30mph may be noted.

In the overall scheme of things, I have no changes to my thoughts on hot this big storm plays out for Halloween and Thursday. Heavy rain and high winds are likely for much of the region and this may cause some issues. Let’s start things out with the heavy rain potential. A general 2″-4″ of rain will fall across western and central Kentucky, with locally higher amounts. Those numbers drop off dramatically across the southeastern part of the state.

My flood threat map hasn’t changed…

The various forecast models are similar to my line of thinking in where the heaviest rains fall…

Winds are another big player as our storm system rolls from south to north across the commonwealth. Those gusts on Halloween can top out around 40mph at times, with Thursday being the prime time for high winds. Gusts Thursday into Thursday night may reach 50mph or higher at times.

Watch how this storm wraps up across our region and pulls a secondary low in behind it for late Friday and early Saturday…

Canadian

GFS

That second system would bring chilly showers back in here to start the weekend.

As that system moves away, another one quickly follows it up by late Sunday into early next week. This one pulls even colder air behind it, with another system following that up a few days later…

You will notice some blues showing up on that animation, indicating some winter potential. This potential has been showing up at times on the models. They often jump the gun on such setups, but we are getting into a more favorable setup for them to verify.

I will have other updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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8 Responses to High Winds and Heavy Rain On The Way

  1. Schroeder says:

    Halloween is expected to be stormy.

  2. Schroeder says:

    This flooding that is predicted depends on where the front stalls out. It could be north of the Ohio River or it could be through central Kentucky or in the Tennessee Valley. Any weather will be north of the front with the heavy rains and south of the front will have summer type weather with the possibility of severe weather as the front moves through. This pattern reminds me of November 2005 with the tornadoes. Scary.

  3. Schroeder says:

    I checked out the current weather conditions in Alaska and throughout Canada. Frigid Arctic air is really building and almost covers the entire country along with daily bouts of snow. In contrast, yesterday here in central Kentucky was one of the most beautiful Autumn Afternoons that I can ever remember and the trees are really putting on a colorful show with yellows,reds and all colors in between and made a great contrast with the evergreens. I wish we could put yesterdays weather on hold.

    • Jamie says:

      I do too…bottle it up for the inevitable cold rainy days of November… (and December, January, February, March….) ok – yeah, I’d like a repeat copy of yesterday about 30 or 40 more times this winter.

  4. Mike S says:

    Louisville and Lexington both have secured a rare October statistical feat for 2018: least amount of days ever with a low temperature in the 50’s. Right now, both have not recorded a single low temperature in the 50’s this month…and we have only one more day to go. Previously, the years of 1952 and 1987 were shared by Louisville and Lexington with only 2 days during the October of those years with low temperatures in the 50’s. Normally, for Louisville, based on the 1981-2010 climate, we average about 9 days with lows in the 50’s.

  5. Schroeder says:

    In my county of Taylor we had many mornings of lows in the 50’s and lower. Three good frost and a light freeze. The coldest October was in 1976. where at the end of the month the temperature was in the teens, but that was in southern Indiana.

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