Wicked Halloween Weather Update

Happy Halloween, folks. Rain and thunderstorms have engulfed much of the region on this big day as our big storm system rolls into the region. The target areas for the worst of the weather continue to be western, northern and parts of central Kentucky.

Our Flood Watch rolls on, but I don’t agree with the trimming of the counties in the Lexington metro…

Many areas have already picked up 3″ of rain on the day and will get in  on a lot more.

The Greatest Risk area will pick up a general 2″-4″ of rain during this time, with locally higher amounts up to 6″ possible. Flooding and flash flooding will be possible. As I’ve mentioned on many occasions, there is a VERY sharp cutoff on the eastern and southeastern side of the heavy rain. That means areas of the east and southeast may not pick up very much at all.

Winds will continue to be an issue into Thursday with gusts of 40mph or greater showing up…

Leftover chilly showers will be with us on Friday, but things clean up for Saturday. Another shower maker moves in later Sunday with another big storm system due in here Tuesday…

Heavy rain, strong storms and high winds will again be possible. Check out the forecast gusts off the European Model…

That’s followed up by a surge of cold air and the potential for another system moving in. The European Model has the first flakes late next week…

Check out the cold on the model behind that…

The GFS Ensembles are also showing the flake potential over the next few weeks…

Here are your tracking tools to get you through the rest of the day…

Have a Happy Halloween and take care.

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4 Responses to Wicked Halloween Weather Update

  1. BubbaG says:

    Not complaining, but looks like the system so far is more north and due east than expected. Richmond has got a few drops and that’s it so far. Not even much wind. Good call changing Trick or Treat just in case, but Richmond on south would have been fine.

    • TennMark says:

      I think for the most part cities in north central Tennessee that were having outdoor Trick or Treating this evening went on as scheduled. Just a few widely scattered showers at this time, and thankfully the wind has died down.

      Nevertheless, there is a solid wave of Flood Watches up just west and north of Nashville including for Bowling Green KY.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      More than a few drops, buddy.

  2. TennMark says:

    CB beat me to it 😉 but many thanks anyway! Chris just tweeted about a possible tornado touchdown a little while ago close to Rineyville KY near Elizabethtown. There was rotation detected, although I don’t know at this time if there a debris ball on radar. NWS Louisville will do a ground survey tomorrow.

    That particular area was under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (the Tornado Warning was not issued until later downstream) which goes to show that storms that may initially show far from ideal conditions for twisters can still sometime cause a brief if weak tornado.

    As a reminder, November is a secondary severe weather season for much of this part of the country including Kentucky and Tennessee.

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