Good Sunday, everyone. Its full steam ahead toward a big storm system moving into the region over the next few days. This brings a severe weather threat to town, with damaging winds showing up as the primary player Monday night and early Tuesday.
Before the big show arrives, the opening act moves across the state today. This is a fairly weak front, but it will bring showers and gusty winds from west to east…
Low pressure develops across the Mississippi Valley on Monday and quickly heads toward the Great Lakes, strengthening along the way. Severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of this system from the Ohio Valley into parts of the deep south…
All modes of severe weather are possible from late Monday into Election Day morning. That includes damaging winds, large hail and a few torandoes.
Here’s the Monday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
The Tuesday Outlook…
The damaging wind threat is especially high, with several models suggesting 60mph+ gusts in our region. The European Model gust forecast is crazy on Monday night…
The storms end very quickly Tuesday morning with gusty winds and chilly temps for the rest of the day.
That cold air continues to sink in as another low pressure develops and skirts by to our south. This may open the door for rain or a mix of rain and snow by the end of the week…
This kicks off a very cold look on the GFS Ensembles…
I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. Wondering how quick today’s weather maker is moving. Harding back from northern Ohio today and I hate travelling in the rain. Tomorrow night looks scary for sure. I hope it doesn’t turn out as bad as it looks. Have a great Sunday everyone.
Depending on the low level jet winds, which should exceed 70 knots, or roughly 80 mph, just above the surface, in your experience, do you really think the full brunt of those winds can mix down to the surface at night? Plus, your maps showing possible gusts do not tell us if these are storm-related wind gusts or post-frontal gradient wind gusts. Still, I think it’s likely we’ll see region wide wind damage, this coming in at night. Be careful all. Check your smoke detector batteries and weather radio batteries.
Although the CIPS Top 15 analogs are not supportive of a widespread severe event yet, a glaring analog from November 6, 2005 made the list. Widespread tornadoes, including a destructive and deadly one between Henderson, KY and Evansville, IN took out a horse park at Ellis Park and severely damaged a mobile home park that killed over 20 residents
As by the EURO, this would be a high wind weather watch criteria instead of a regular wind advisory….if so, we need to get watches out by tonight or it will be warnings without watches later Monday!