Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Pesky showers are moving away, but another rain maker is on the way for Thursday night into Friday. That one unleashes cold air and a few novelty snowflakes for some, and is also the opening act for a bigger winter weather system moving in here early next week.

Before all of that, let’s track the shower action out of town…

Chilly temps continue on Thursday with highs in the 40s as clouds continue to stream back in here. Our system rolling in from the southwest brings a cold rain that may even have a clap of thunder with it into Friday. Winds will be gusty as temps crash from northwest to southeast. That sets the stage for the possibility of a few flurries on a northwest wind Friday night.

The Hi Res NAM actually has a few snow showers streaking across the sky as early as Friday evening…

The European Model has a similar look…

Saturday is a very cold day with temps deep in the 20s with wind chills in the teens to start. High will be in the upper 30s and low 40s across the state.

The next system moves in here Monday into Tuesday and has a winter look to it. Arctic air is diving into the area with our low developing to our south and rolling northeast. That may bring rain and snow our way as early as Monday, with a better snow chance behind it Monday night and Tuesday.

The Canadian

The GFS and European Models are showing their respective biases. The Euro is too strong and too far west because it has trouble with holding on to energy too long as it ejects from the southwest. The GFS is usually too progressive, but still shows a good snow into eastern parts of the state…

The GFS Ensembles are showing the snow potential from our region through the northeast…

I will focus more on the snow threats coming up with the overnight update. Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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2 Responses to Wednesday Evening Update

  1. Terry says:

    Come on Jimbo! We may get more snow in November than the pitiful 1 inch or less snows we got earlier this past winter and spring. Awesome time ahead for weather tracking as, even if everything falls apart next week, it is rare for a system of this magnitude to even be a possibility pre-Thanksgiving!

  2. Cameron Fry says:

    Curious to know why the EURO/GFS have those particular biases. Is it a truncation issue or something completely different?

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