Saturday Afternoon Update

Good Saturday, everyone. The first flakes of the season have come and gone, but very cold air remains. Temps are barely into the low and middle 30s for most of the state under almost full sun. Out attention now turns to the developing storm system targeting the region with rain and snow Monday and Tuesday.

This system continues to look like a rain maker to begin, with a quick transition to a swath of snow late Monday into Tuesday. Here’s the latest GFS…

The Canadian Model is similar, but develops a second wave of low pressure right behind that main system. Notice how this second wave brings a better snow chance to the southeast late Tuesday…

Overall, I still feel good with my target area for the best chance of, at least, light accumulations of snow…

The GFS Ensembles snow map is similar…

I may throw out a first call map later tonight, so check back. This is likely to be a light snow event.

In my last post, I said my old weather sniffer was picking up on a signal for next weekend that was not showing up on the models. Well, that is now showing up on the models. 🙂

Another deep trough digs into the eastern part of the country, bringing more frigid temps and snow chances our way. Can we actually get some kind of storm system to accompany it? The Canadian is trying…

The GFS is also trying, but appears to be having bias issues of east coast systems being too far east initially…

The European Model is most similar to the Canadian, but has a much deeper and colder setup…

 

Still, that’s another deep heart of winter trough digging into our region and would bring our third snow threat in about a week. I love it when I sniff something out without any model support whatsoever, then the models show it. Take that computers!!! #teamweatherdude 🙂

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


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10 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. Terry says:

    It is sad to say but places like Harlan and Middlesboro didn’t even get first flakes last night☹….I hope we get some snow showers at least for Tuesday night while we watch the Twitter feed explode with Central KY snow accumulation!

    • Terry says:

      Also, I am a bit concerned for high water down in Harlan if we get 1 to 2 inches of rain or more as we are saturated thanks to 3.16 inches since Monday!

    • Andy Rose says:

      I seen flurries in Corbin this morning around 8 am

    • Mike says:

      I didn’t see any flakes or rooftop white in my part of Richmond either.

      I wonder where anyone did? Perhaps it was a radar only snow. I have seen plenty of those.

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I feel your pain about no snow Terry. We always seem to get left out in the Somerset area too. Sometimes we get lucky. But usually wen ours starts out as a cold rain, it stays that way
    until there may be a few flurries, which we didn’t see last night either. Oh well, its technically not winter yet. Stay warm and have a good afternoon all.

    • Terry says:

      I agree…November is definitely bonus for snow. Even if no real snow Tuesday, I want complain about a few flakes only as that still sets the mood for Christmas!

  3. Garthe says:

    “I love it when I sniff something out without any model support whatsoever, then the models show it.”

    It’s amazing what you can learn from twitter and other weather forums where this has been discussed at length with regards to next weeks potential….

    • StormTrackerWV says:

      Don’t know who you are, but just because others may or may not have discussed this on Twitter doesn’t mean that Chris has read their Tweets…the man has good instincts for weather, and this is HIS blog–if you don’t like it, buzz off and go read the others! But DO NOT come on here and disrespect him! That is NOT what this forum is for!

  4. StormTrackerWV says:

    Way to go Chris!!! #teamweatherdude #LookingGoodForTeamWeatherWeanies!!!!!

  5. Drew says:

    Looks like NWS was right on this one like I said a few days ago.. blog got amped up tho

    Mostly rain!!

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