Good Saturday, everyone. The first flakes of the season have come and gone, but very cold air remains. Temps are barely into the low and middle 30s for most of the state under almost full sun. Out attention now turns to the developing storm system targeting the region with rain and snow Monday and Tuesday.

This system continues to look like a rain maker to begin, with a quick transition to a swath of snow late Monday into Tuesday. Here’s the latest GFS…

The Canadian Model is similar, but develops a second wave of low pressure right behind that main system. Notice how this second wave brings a better snow chance to the southeast late Tuesday…

Overall, I still feel good with my target area for the best chance of, at least, light accumulations of snow…

The GFS Ensembles snow map is similar…

I may throw out a first call map later tonight, so check back. This is likely to be a light snow event.

In my last post, I said my old weather sniffer was picking up on a signal for next weekend that was not showing up on the models. Well, that is now showing up on the models. 🙂

Another deep trough digs into the eastern part of the country, bringing more frigid temps and snow chances our way. Can we actually get some kind of storm system to accompany it? The Canadian is trying…

The GFS is also trying, but appears to be having bias issues of east coast systems being too far east initially…

The European Model is most similar to the Canadian, but has a much deeper and colder setup…

 

Still, that’s another deep heart of winter trough digging into our region and would bring our third snow threat in about a week. I love it when I sniff something out without any model support whatsoever, then the models show it. Take that computers!!! #teamweatherdude 🙂

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.