Good afternoon, folks. Rain rolled into the region this morning and actually started as a touch of sleet across parts of north central and northeastern Kentucky. The rain is taking over, but should go back to a little frozen stuff later tonight and early Tuesday. Then, another system rolls our way in a few days. Busy enough for ya?
Here are your radars to track today’s initial touch of sleet and rain…
The radars show the disjointed nature of the precipitation, with two shields. The main one moves through very quickly, but the rain and snow one to the west slowly works in behind it. Later tonight and Tuesday morning, that is on top of western and parts of central Kentucky.
Folks in the southeast may get another swipe of rain and some flakes Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The next system is going to turn into a big event across the eastern part of the country. This system will turn into a full blown nor’easter, with the trailing upper level low moving our way. As I’ve said for the past few days, if you want snow, you want to be directly under the upper low of just west of its track.
The models differ slightly with the track of the upper low, but many bring it on top of the region at some point. What may wind up happening in this setup: A wintry mix of precipitation moves in Wednesday night and goes over to rain early Thursday. By later Thursday, we are seeing that switch to some light snow from west to east as the upper low swings through.
Here’s the NAM through early Thursday evening…
GFS
Canadian
ICON
I will have an update on WKYT-TV starting at 4 and will also throw another update at you later today. Make it a good one and take care.
It is sleeting at 12:45 near Ray, Ohio.
So what you are saying is it’s going to be another rain maker. 2 storms 2 rain makers. Probably how the winter will go
Well it is official at my house: I crossed the 60.00 inch mark at 1:50PM. Okay, I am off from work today and nothing else better to do than be a weather geek…don’t judge me lol☺
Anyways, it is absolutely pouring in Harlan and looks like at least a quick inch today!
My only bold November prediction is this (SE KY): We may get a little snow, but I think we have a better chance of double digit November rainfall by the 30th. I am working on 4 inches for the month-to-date already! There is literally no end in sight to the storm train and the heavier precipitation is shifting more towards east KY, for the near future anyways!
Congrats on the rainfall i guess..lol..A wet moist ground is actually used in winter forecasts so maybe a good thing..Anyways really believe SE KY will finally break the snow drought this winter..Weak central based El Nino with low solar,MJO forecast to make rounds in the favorable position and the wildcard to me is a -NAO..Believe we will finally see bouts of a -NAO this winter especially Feb..Don ‘t want it too strong though or we get suppressed..Anyways no matter what happens it’s still fun to track and see how the winter plays out.
That is true about blocking getting too strong at times. The current NAO looks to nosedive beyond next week. Hopefully, it will only go somewhat between -1 and -2 and stay in that range for a while…That range seems to allow some blocking without fully killing the southern jet!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
Please refrain from using the term “nor’easter” in future posts. This is a ridiculous term that makes me cringe.
Love your blog though!!!
I believe Chris Bailey will use any term he wants in his blog
Refrain from thinking you are entitled to tell CB how to write his blog.
BOLD PREDICTION!!!
If someone doesn’t end up with an inch of snow this week, they will go ahead and say Winter is over!
It looks like cold rain is going to be the dominant weather feature for a while. Would like to see some accumulating snow, but I will take this over the 60 and 70 degree temps, we usually get in November.
60s and 70s are not usual in November.
I can remember many Thanksgivings when I was on the golf course in shorts. I can’t play but my dad needed a whipping post with a big handicap.
They are in southern KY. Just sayin
They are becoming more typical in my part of WV. A lot more common than frost or snow.
Seems the average of the models is cold rain being nearly the complete mix. No harm no foul though, this time of year 🙂
And here goes Bubba….