Updating The Winter Weather Potential

Good evening, folks. It has been an absolutely dreary and cold day across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Some sleet and steady showers have been common, now we wait for some light snow to show up later tonight. This is kicking off a very active week that will throw a bigger winter weather system our way by Wednesday night and Thursday.

Let’s start with the first system that can throw some light snow in here later tonight. The best chance for some light snow is across the western and central parts of the state, oriented from southwest to northeast similar to the map I put out several days ago.

The GFS suggests some very light accumulations…

The short range Canadian has a little better coverage of that…

The new version of the GFS also has a little better coverage…

Moral of the story, I can’t rule out some slush accumulating on grassy or elevated surfaces into western Kentucky and parts of central and  northern Kentucky.

The next storm system has the chance to bring a wintry mix into the region as early as Wednesday night. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow may develop on the leading edge of our precipitation shield during this time. From there, rain may take over for a while in central and eastern Kentucky, with a better snow chance in the west. As the low works through, wraparound snow may move across the rest of the state…

It’s very interesting to see the models spitting out some freezing rain this early in the year. Look at the European Model for Wednesday night…

Here’s the Freezing rain forecast from that run…

The GFS is similar…

The latest run of the GFS targets western Kentucky as being under and just west of the track of the upper low, giving more dynamic cooling for snow…

The European Model is a bit west with that…

It’s way too early in the season to be talking about precipitation types and the forecasting headaches that come with them. 🙁

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.


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6 Responses to Updating The Winter Weather Potential

  1. WNTRLover says:

    Sorry about the headaches, and I appreciate all that you do! I love this time of year in Northern KY.

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Thank you for keeping us updated on this wacky weather! Looks like my let ifcthe statexwill be lucky to see flurries but oh well. It’s very early. If we do see any it will just be a bonus. No complaints here! Have a good evening and stay warm!

    • Terry says:

      Right on! We need to shift this 400 or so miles east, and then good ole SE KY folks will have something to talk about now and years to come given those early season amounts☺

      • Jimbo says:

        Those model snow maps, feel like deja vu. It’s the first snow accumulation map of the season and I am already tired of looking at it. Seen that map too many times over the years. Oh well, it is nice to see snow close by this early. This usually don’t happen till late December.

  3. Todd says:

    Snow signature already showing up west of Louisville, this may be an overachiever for some??
    TEMPS will decide.

  4. StormTrackerWV says:

    I don’t trust ANY of it! The models have been all over the place for the past year or two and none of them have really been “right”. And as much as I enjoy snow when I can stay home and “enjoy” it, I hate it when I have to be out and about driving around in this mess (especially when you are throwing sleet & freezing rain chances into the mix). So I am going to remain CAUTIOUS and expect Old Man Winter to be showing up early in the neighborhood anyway this week & be prepared just in case, and if he doesn’t come around, well then good, everyone can carry on and usual and there will be no runs on bread, milk and juice at the store LOL If this keeps up, I’ll have to drive down south to get my Thanksgiving turkey and Stovetop Stuffing! LOL!!! 🙂

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