Winter Storm Threat Wednesday Night and Thursday

Good afternoon, everyone. Many areas picked up light snow accumulations this morning, making this the 4th day out of the past 5 to deliver winter weather somewhere in the state. As we head into late Wednesday and Thursday, a potent winter storm system rolls our way with freezing rain, sleet, snow and rain.

Given the nasty mix of frozen precipitation and the potential for several inches of snow in the far west, this is my first ever pre-Thanksgiving Winter Storm Threat.

Location means everything in terms of what kind of precipitation you will see outside your house over the next few days. The freezing rain potential is VERY rare sight for the month of November, especially for the middle of the month. Some areas may pick up enough freezing rain to cause a few issues.

Here’s my current thinking (subject to change) on how this storm plays out across Kentucky…

The one positive for areas getting in on the freezing rain is that ground temps are above freezing. Still, elevated surfaces may be coated in some ice for a time Wednesday night before rain takes over early Thursday. That rain will end as some snow by evening.  The heavy snow area I’ve highlighted across the west may be in for a thumping heavy wet snow.

Here’s how the GFS shows the progression of the storm…

The Hi Res NAM

The Hi Res NAM continues to spit out some impressive freezing rain amounts…

The regular version of the NAM is lower, but still up there…

The GFS isn’t as generous with the freezing rain, but still has pockets of higher totals…

The Canadian is similar to the Hi-Res NAM with heavier amounts…

As mentioned, areas of the far western part of the state could be in line for a thumper of a wet snow…

GFS

NAM

As the low pulls east on Thursday, rain will end as a period of light snow across the rest of the state. That may put down some light accumulations as it works through.

BTW, I’m keeping an eye on Sunday for a sneaky system moving through here. That may try to ramp up a little more.

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, so tune in. I will also have another KWC update for you later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


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18 Responses to Winter Storm Threat Wednesday Night and Thursday

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Wow! This crazy weather just keeps on keeping on, doesn’t it? Western Kentucky sure looks to be in a sweet spot for a good snow. But you can keep the freezing rain! It shows up quite well on the maps. Now, I know you said that the ground is too warm for it to be a big issue, but what about wires and such? Possibility of anything there? Also, very glad the ground is warm because that would be a really BIG mess, as many of us well know….anyway, it sure just got more interesting. Have a great afternoon everyone and stay warm and dry.

  2. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Wow! Any snow before Thanksgiving is a huge bonus in Rodger’s backyard. We’ll see. Rodger in Dodger

  3. Jimbo says:

    Looks like more cold rain for western WV and eastern KY. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

    • Coreyfromtheky says:

      To be fair…western Kentucky misses out alot on the east coast storms and app runners…the heavy snow is going to be confined to very far western ky…dont feel bad jimbo

  4. Cold-Rain says:

    End of November going into December sure starting too look interesting..Really could not ask for anything better if the modeling is correct..

  5. jimcvg says:

    Any chance this thing moves east by Thursday and takes the snow line with it?

    • Cold-Rain says:

      Probably not..Need that high in New England to move west and probably a little south..ULL are hard to predict where or which way they track so hey you never know..

  6. feederband says:

    Did Schroeder get kicked off the site? I haven’t seen any posts in a few days. Did I miss something?
    Anyway, what a great start to the winter season. This is going to be a very snowy, high precip winter. It even got Rolo out early.

    • Debbie says:

      Yep-I was just wondering the other day about our buddy Rolo!
      I was also wondering about Schroeder? I’d hate to see ANYONE kicked out simply because of their opinions. As we all know, weather in the OV is a tricky subject, and through the years of Chris’ blog, we have ALL shared our own unique ideas about how our weather plays out, especially in the winter. Some are right, some are wrong, but in all reality, I think the majority of us like to imagine in our own way of how each weather system will play out? For me, and a lot of us, I am going for a nice, snowy/icy winter. Sure didn’t pan out for most of us(based on model runs…)last Winter, did it???! I mean, I’m in Bardstown, and every model looked sooo promising a day or two out, but then fizzled out like a bum firecracker….then March/April we got our biggest thumpers…4″….7″…9″….gone in a couple of hours. UGHHH….

  7. WINTERLOVER says:

    Winter storm watches are out here in far western,ky. We shall see how this pans out expected up to 5 inches.

    • Rodger Dodger says:

      Lots of variables with this one. A little warmer and snow totals down. A touch colder and more snow. Of course, that’s how these situations usually go lol. This is Rodger in Dodger

  8. Dawnp007 says:

    Excited for winter weather this early. I just wish it was in more of my neck of the woods. Bummer.

  9. Rickie H says:

    Thank you Chris for sharing your info. Congratulations to all you far Western Kentuckians. I hope it all pans out for ya. I love the snow but not envious at all.

  10. Any thing interms of winter weather for central in the russell county area? Love winter hate to miss out on all this.

  11. Bengalfan says:

    I’m surprised not much talk on here,,, i’m just excited that winter has come early this year even have some family Missouri was no pics .

  12. BubbaG says:

    If we were about four weeks later, we would probably be in trouble as far as electricity. Nice timing for once 🙂

  13. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Congrats to western KY wish I was there!! I am with Coffee lady I don’t want ice or freezing rain I am sure no one does hopefully you wont. I would love some snow even if it’s flurries but living in eastern KY is very disappointing for us snow lovers but I will continue to hope!! I am thankful we don’t have the fires like CA my thoughts and prayers are with them so there is always something to be thankful for! Thank you Chris for all you do! Stay warm everyone!!

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