Good afternoon, everyone. Many areas picked up light snow accumulations this morning, making this the 4th day out of the past 5 to deliver winter weather somewhere in the state. As we head into late Wednesday and Thursday, a potent winter storm system rolls our way with freezing rain, sleet, snow and rain.

Given the nasty mix of frozen precipitation and the potential for several inches of snow in the far west, this is my first ever pre-Thanksgiving Winter Storm Threat.

Location means everything in terms of what kind of precipitation you will see outside your house over the next few days. The freezing rain potential is VERY rare sight for the month of November, especially for the middle of the month. Some areas may pick up enough freezing rain to cause a few issues.

Here’s my current thinking (subject to change) on how this storm plays out across Kentucky…

The one positive for areas getting in on the freezing rain is that ground temps are above freezing. Still, elevated surfaces may be coated in some ice for a time Wednesday night before rain takes over early Thursday. That rain will end as some snow by evening.  The heavy snow area I’ve highlighted across the west may be in for a thumping heavy wet snow.

Here’s how the GFS shows the progression of the storm…

The Hi Res NAM

The Hi Res NAM continues to spit out some impressive freezing rain amounts…

The regular version of the NAM is lower, but still up there…

The GFS isn’t as generous with the freezing rain, but still has pockets of higher totals…

The Canadian is similar to the Hi-Res NAM with heavier amounts…

As mentioned, areas of the far western part of the state could be in line for a thumper of a wet snow…

GFS

NAM

As the low pulls east on Thursday, rain will end as a period of light snow across the rest of the state. That may put down some light accumulations as it works through.

BTW, I’m keeping an eye on Sunday for a sneaky system moving through here. That may try to ramp up a little more.

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, so tune in. I will also have another KWC update for you later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.