Good evening, folks. A developing winter storm is heading our way and arrives late Wednesday afternoon and hangs around through Thursday night. Snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are likely across the state during this rare mid-November winter storm.
A Winter Storm Watch is already out for western parts of the state…
I would expect that to be upgraded to a warning later tonight and for Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for much of the rest of the state. This may approach warning criteria into parts of central Kentucky where freezing rain is much more of a threat.
Earlier today, I pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm THREAT and my thoughts remain unchanged…
Let’s see how the latest models are playing this storm…
European
GFS
There has been the trend for a little more of a snow signal early on across parts of central Kentucky, but the freezing rain signal continues to be the top dog…
GFS
NAM
Hi Res NAM
The short range Canadian is very amped up on the freezing rain….
Freezing rain may become a pretty big issue starting Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. That should go over to plain rain early Thursday morning as temps slowly climb above freezing.
Temps then drop from west to east with the rain changing to light snow Thursday afternoon and evening. The bulk of the snow falls in western Kentucky, where several inches are possible…
GFS
European
NAM
I will have an update on WKYT-TV at 11 and will First Call it later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.
Thanks Chris. Looks like some are going to get an early Thanksgiving present! Keep wondering if this could be a hint of what we may see a bit later….just askin’ 😉
Wow! Looks like some kids in the state
might possibly get a snow day before Thanksgiving Break!
A month later, this could have been a beast in KY area wide, even poor SE KY! Still gives hope for the winter ahead but I am weary of SE KY always staying warmer.
So, why is that climatalogically, SE KY is suppose to be so much colder than the rest of the state but never seems to be in the low elevations? I have always thought that temps are skewed incorrectly colder here due simply to topography. If you are in the valley area like Harlan, Middlesboro, Pineville, Barbourville, etc, it just isn’t as cold as weather maps show, especially in the summer. Harlan is suppose to be the snowiest place in the state, but unless you live up high, you just don’t see as much as the maps show. Yes, the right storm track can clobber Harlan and surrounding counties, but overall, I think we stay a lot warmer down here than weather maps predict yielding a lot less snow than people think we see that don’t live here! Like last weekend, we literally just had our first freeze here but most of the rest of the state had one weeks ago.
Hi Terry, I live in Northern Bell county (Beverly aka Redbird area). I agree. I wish we got more snow!
Dunno… better ask Schroeder. Probably related to global
warming, plate tectonics, solar outputs and indolent Ky educators praying for snow days. Take your pick but
Rolo usually makes more sense..
They say if you say his name three times in the mirror he shows up talking about climate change, water vapor, 70’s winter, upper level winds, and sea surface temps.
That is pretty interesting stuff! I always thought it would be colder down at the bottom of the mountains? Thanks for posting, I’m intrigued now.
Machell
its very interesting, our winter weather here is totally different from the rest of the state. really need the perfect setup and track for snow here. Seems our weather is more based off what happens in tn and not ky
Terry, I asked that same question for years. Finally got an answer a few years ago. Its was called the Appy Wedge. Caused by southeast winds blowing down the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains, as air descends it warms. I think that’s why on most storm maps for our area in Winter always shows a swath of warmer air and rain stretching up from East Tennessee to Central West Virginia. I live in Western WV and see this scenario play out constantly during the Winter. This upcoming event is perfect example when you look at the predicted maps. I think the only way for our areas to get a good snow, is for a storm to move from the Gulf to the Virginia Coast. That way we stay on the northwest side.
Thanks Jimbo, I wondered what that weird “dry slot” was about that kept showing up on the models…I honestly thought that might be where the “Chemical Valley” is up the Kanawha Valley (you know the locals SWEAR the “output” from the chemical plants just sort of “dries up” or evaporates the snow! LOL) But, Tony Cavalier of WSAZ says that there is “power plant effect snows” that stream off of the giant steam stacks from John Amos power plant in Putnam County, very similar to “lake effect” snows, of course it would be on a much smaller scale and would just be a little tiny wisp of a snow band within the larger Appy Wedge area.
Wow, this is fascinating stuff!
And didn’t someone say that Harlan or part of that county is part of some ancient meteor crater so that the earth is literally recessed further down there, making it warmer than it’s surroundings? Or was that some other location in Kentucky?
I believe it was Middlesboro that is set in a large meter crater. There actually is a plaque describing it.
It’s really fascinating how different the winter weather is in se ky, compared to the rest of the state. I’d love to see nws write up on this.