Tracking The Winter Storm Impact

Good Wednesday, everyone. A winter storm is set to impact the region later today through Thursday. Rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow will all be noted with this storm, and that’s a very rare occurrence for the month of November.

Let’s begin with the latest Winter Weather Alerts map. This will update as new information comes in…

All modes of winter precipitation are on the table from late this afternoon into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be showing up across Kentucky. Given the different precipitation types and duration of each, nailing down amounts is super tough for any one location.

Let me begin by saying I do not expect this to be a full blow ice storm in the true sense of the term. The ground temps are still above freezing, so that will help us out in a big way. Still, elevated surfaces could pick up on a coating of ice as far western Kentucky picks up on a heavy band of snow.

I’m leaving open a pretty good window of freezing rain accumulation and will close the gap with my next update. Here’s a general First Call for Ice and Snowfall…

Let me try to break that down a little better:

  • The snow in western Kentucky will be fairly heavy at times. Accumulations of 2″-6″ are possible. Heavier totals will likely be just north of the river.
  • The freezing rain and mix area will experience a little bit of everything from this evening into the wee hours of Thursday morning. By daybreak, temps should be above freezing with mostly rain falling. That rain continues to fall into the daytime hours before switching to light snow from west to east by late afternoon and evening. Light accumulations will be possible.
  • The mainly rain area may still see a touch of frozen at the start, but rain looks like the main precipitation type until late Thursday into Thursday night. That’s when light snow takes over with light accumulation possible.

Let’s get a check of what some of the models are suggesting. The European Model has a healthy swath of freezing rain…

That’s similar to the Canadian…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

For snowfall, the heaviest action is across the far west. The European…

The NAM has some pockets of better snows farther east with the wrap around action late Thursday…

So does the European Model…

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

 


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11 Responses to Tracking The Winter Storm Impact

  1. Terry says:

    From the previous page: I do appreciate everyone’s comments as the app wedge with the down sloping winds also helps explain why most severe storms are sheared apart in SE KY up through West VA. I really hadn’t thought about the app wedge affecting the winter as much as severe weather season but it really does if the storm track is more to the west or right on top of app Mts…I appreciate you all aga in for the comnents!

    I have studied some a while back on how down sloping on the west side of the high plains can really warm up/dry out the atmosphere there which helps create the infamous dry line for severe storm development. Although our mountains are much smaller, than The Rockies, the winds do tend to keep the rainfall lower and temps higher at times when strong lows track either west of the region or on top of us compared to Central and Western KY. Still, we average around 50 inches of rain + each year despite the dry air effect we experience at times….makes me wonder how much rain we could average if we had 0 down sloping….yikes!

    Here is to high hopes we all have a strong winter for snow and not much ice (for you Bubba) areawide from Jimbo to Harlan, Harlan to far western KY folks our folks down in TN up to those north of the mighty Ohio!!! This winter really should favor a lot more snow than last year☺

    P.S. I will be happy with even a dusting tomorrow night as this is very early bonus. We may get a bit mote next week too from the looks of the pattern ahead.

  2. B H says:

    Warm for Thanksgiving. At least that’s what I reading for my area in S. O. Warm I mean in the 40’s.

  3. Jimbo says:

    StormTrackerWV, I have heard about the Kanawha (chemical) valley effect for years. I don’t think that is true especially now since there are only about 3 plants left and they much smaller than years ago. But the John Amos phenomena is true. I live several miles west of west of it and drive by it daily. It has to get frigid, like single digits or below for that to happen. The moisture in the giants columns of steam fall as tiny snowflakes downwind a few miles. I have drove through it a few times. Usually only occurs on clear, very cold nights. The freezing rain maps in this post depict the wedge better than I could probably explain it.

    • B H says:

      I’ve driven through the same effect on route 7 by the power plants along the Ohio River. The sky would be clear as a bell and then snow flurries would be falling out of the sky by the large towers.

  4. Jimbo says:

    One other note, The Chemical Valley effect, might have been true 40 years ago and on back, when there were many more plants and a lot less pollution regulations. I can’t say I didn’t live in the area then. But i have always lived in that wedge area. I have seen it in action for 55 years.

  5. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Don’t know what the evening and overnight and tomorrow will bring everyone (except us…we always get rain) but I don’t mind that. Don’t want ice and if we can get some light snow tomorrow evening that will be just fine. But I do know this…it’s stinkin’ COLD this morning out there! Makes me want to put on Christmas music and make sausage balls! 😉 Have a great Hump Day everyone, and please stay tuned to Chris for updates. Stay safe and warm!

  6. Matt says:

    Yea, it’s always odd to see those maps shaped like a huge horseshoe with wintry precip circled around as far south as South Carolina but that huge nose of warmth right up across SE Kentucky..

  7. Cold-Rain says:

    I don’t know but looks like models are erasing the totals out west..

  8. Melva says:

    Will Huntington get any of this? That’s a sharp cut off point for that area. Everywhere around it is highlighted, but that one tiny space.

  9. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger’s neighborhood near Henderson will be interesting tonight. Temps running colder than predicted and any movement east of the ULL could him in jackpot snow zone. Hoping for more snow and less ice. Rodger in Dodger

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