A Bit Of A Break Ahead

Good Friday, everyone. Wow! That’s about all I can say about the last week of weather across the bluegrass state. 7 of the last 8 days featured winter precipitation, including significant ice and accumulating snows. As we head into the weekend, the winter pattern starts to back off just a bit, but I’m already eyeing another winter lovers setup later in the month and early December.

Let’s start with today and roll ahead. A few flurries may be noted across the east very early today, with partly sunny skies taking over. I’m going to watch northern Kentucky to see if we can get a sneaky sprinkle or snow flurry to develop this afternoon, but most stay dry. Temp[s range from the 30s north to 40s south.

Sunday is a windy day as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. This may bring a few showers by the end of the day. with a rain or snow shower Sunday night…

Colder air comes in behind that front for Monday and the flow has some sneaky cold it for the run up to Thanksgiving. Temps won’t be as cold as what we have been seeing, but that doesn’t mean they still won’t be below normal…

That current call is for mainly dry weather into Thanksgiving Day, but the setup makes me a littler nervous into the rest of the weekend. Temps will turn milder, but rain may become a player before all is said and done.

The milder few days won’t last long as the pattern is already screaming “look out below”! The signal for final week of November is for some serious blocking to go up, allowing for another cold and wintry period to begin…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

With our winter preview coming to an end, the main show is going to try to lock in by the end of the month and into early December.

I will shoot you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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19 Responses to A Bit Of A Break Ahead

  1. Terry says:

    We missed most of it in Harlan but I finally had a couple of snow showers with just a bit on the car tops and porch….it counts for first flakes with the mountains having a lot more looking up☺

    Both NAO and AO are already going negative….blocking party invites are out.

    • TennMark says:

      Still crazy that Houston TX of all places had an earlier snow! That was a few days ago, and that trace of the white gold (considering it’s southern Texas) now ranks as Houston’s earliest snow on record. This beats the old mark by a whopping ten days according to the NWS.

      Houston’s earliest measurable snow was Dec 4 2009.

      BTW, Nashville had off and on snow and it tried to stick to the elevated surfaces but officially we’ve had only a trace of snow so far this season.

  2. Jimbo says:

    I had a couple flurries around midnight, nothing stuck. If you hadn’t been up to see them, you would have never known.

  3. feederband says:

    Bailey’s going old school with the winter snowfall forecast. I hear you buddy.

    • BubbaG says:

      Seems primed this winter for snow…. Could over-perform expectations as well. I wish this stuff happened when my kids were younger. Both in college, so the snowmance is gone.

      My muscles already ache from the shoveling 🙂 Well, I’m smiling now, anyway.

  4. Matt says:

    Looks like a prolonged dry stretch possibly setting in.. Would be the driest stretch of weather weve had in months.

  5. Mike says:

    The earliest inch of snow I have seen in my 14 years back in Richmond. Nice to wake up to.

  6. winterlover says:

    Since I’m out of viewer of Chris Bailey area, does anyone know how to see Chris Bailey winter outlook. I’ve try youtube bit so far hasn’t been posted

  7. Schroeder says:

    So far this year we have had 61.80 inches of rain. Most I’ve seen in years. In fact I can’t remember when we recorded such a rainfall total. About quarter of an inch of ice on the trees and yesterday evening we had a half of an inch of snow along with a five hour power failure, so I just went to bed. I just got done watching Meteorologist Chris Bailey’s Winter outlook and it really looks like what we had back in 1976-77. After viewing the current Arctic and Siberian temperatures it may be worse than what Chris’s forecast. Always be prepared for the worse.

    • Jamie says:

      I just hope we don’t get a Siberian Express this winter. I can handle the ice & snow… just hunker down with a big pot o’ chicken soup and a good Netflix series… what I don’t like is the -10 or -20 stuff. Keep that away!!

  8. Jimbo says:

    I am now .35 inch away from settling the record for wettest year ever in WV. Currently have 60.67 inches. Good chance of breaking this record especially with the wedge blocking most snow events, like the one yesterday. I know snow counts toward the total but if we had to rely on snow we wouldn’t have a chance at breaking it.

    • Terry says:

      I am not at 61.51. Harlan mesonet is over 76 inches but an outlier due to extreme elevation compared to the rest of us.

      I predicted 70 inches by year end (my location) several months before and am waiting patiently until 12/31 to see if I am right or not…lol☺

      • Jimbo says:

        There is a good chance we will both shatter records this year. With an active storm track keeping the rain train rolling. I think we will get a few snow opportunities, backside flurries, that is.

        • Terry says:

          Due to prolonged wet ground and likely wetter than average winter to come, i think Chris has a high chance of achieving his bold prediction!

          It literally wouldn’t take much for Harlan to flood right now. I have had over 4 inches of rain in past 7 days here!

  9. Mike S says:

    Just got power back in Valley Station…a total of nearly 39 consecutive hours without it. The living and dining room hit a low of 52 degrees this morning. But our modest generator provided us with the needed heat for a couple of the bedrooms, including the heated mattress pad that even the dog appreciated. Not much damage in my yard, but quite a number of trees affected in the area.

  10. TennMark says:

    It was not so long ago we were dealing with severe wx. Both NWS Louisville and NWS Nashville have updated their findings since last week’s outbreak.
    https://www.weather.gov/lmk/SevereStormsNov52018
    https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20181105

    Few if any severe wx reports came from NWS offices that cover other areas of Kentucky and Tennessee (and none were tornadoes).

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